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We get to enjoy one more mild day in Central Alabama with a few passing clouds before we see the passage of two cold fronts – one today and one Monday evening. Both of these fronts will come through the area dry with some clouds accompanying them. Aloft the long wave trough positioned over the eastern US will be strengthened with the passage of several disturbances which will usher in the cold air on a good northwesterly flow.
But in true Southeastern US fashion, we won’t stay in the deep freeze long with temperatures rebounding as the upper air pattern flattens with the eastward progression of the long wave trough. But another strong short wave will move out of the North Central US Thursday deepening as it swings into the Central Mississippi River Valley Friday. This will generate a surface low over Oklahoma which should track northeastward into the Mid Atlantic States on Friday. There should be fairly substantial moisture return ahead of this system as the cold front moves through Alabama on Friday. The GFS and ECMWF are in much better agreement today on the overall scenario. Still a little difference, but not nearly what we saw yesterday. Major difference appears to be the European generating less precipitation than the GFS. Rainfall amounts are expected to be around a quarter to a half inch. As you may already know, rainfall for January is already about three and a half inches ahead of 30-year averages.
The front should clear the state Friday evening with a small window for a brief change over to some snow showers before the precipitation ends completely. This is fairly typical for us as the cold air arrives just as the moisture is exiting, so it is not something that we need to worry about. Behind the front, temperatures will once again dip back to values slightly below climatological values.
Ridging commences on Sunday with another quick warmup as the temperature roller coaster continues for us.
Looking into voodoo country, another really wet system appears likely on the 29th and 30th, so it sure seems likely that January will start 2013 off on a wet note. February starts out on a cold note but the pattern dampens somewhat by the 3rd and 4th but the long wave trough position appears likely to stay put over the eastern US.
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Category: Alabama's Weather