Some Very Cold Days Ahead

The Wednesday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and also on iTunes:

Much of the U.S. is about to go into a very cold period, and for some this will be the coldest air since the mid 1980s. And yes, for the snow lovers, there will be winter storms along the way. Lets talk about it…

SHORT TERM: Cold and dry weather is the story through Friday. The computer models suggest the ole STJ, the sub-tropical jet stream, will be shunted to the south leaving North Alabama with bright sunshine tomorrow and Friday. I guess I will lean in this direction, but I am not willing to go past “partly sunny” for now. The models are really having a hard time initializing the southern stream with any degree of accuracy. Highs will stay in the 40s, and nights will be colder; looks like we will be in the 20s both tomorrow and Friday morning. Most spots will be somewhere between 23 and 28; the colder valleys will drop to near 20 degrees.

THE WEEKEND: A nice short wave will bring the risk of some light rain to Alabama late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Low level thermal profiles continues to suggest there will be some sleet and snow involved, mainly north of Birmingham. Maybe all snow north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. But, surface temperatures are expected to stay a little above freezing, which hopefully will prevent any travel issues. And, the precipitation should be light with limited moisture. Needless to say we will keep a close eye on this as the weekend approaches.

Much colder air blasts in here on Sunday; we should be in the 30s all day with an icy north wind. There might even be a few lingering flurries early in the day over North Alabama.

INTO THE DEEP FREEZE: Next week looks very, very cold. Highs in the 30s; lows in the low to mid 20s. The first half of the week should be dry, but then things get really interesting. An approaching short wave should spin up a storm in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, and will bring the threat of snow to parts of the Deep South on Thursday and Thursday night (2/1). At this point it looks like the best chance of snow will come in the general area between I-40 and I-20 (between Nashville and Birmingham), and the 12Z GFS portrays a system that could bring a very significant amount. But, lets all take a deep breath, this is one day into voodoo land (that is anything beyond seven days). Lets not really jump on this just yet, but be aware of the possibility. Wonder if this will be the first time a Storm Alert tour stop is snowed out….

I don’t even want to speculate on what happens after next week, but the pattern remains cold and unsettled. We like to take the storms one at a time. But the screaming message from both the American global model (the GFS) and the European model (the ECMWF) is COLD. We can deal with storm threats later.

TEN YEARS AGO TODAY: An F2 tornado tore through the eastern part of Tuscaloosa, killing one person and injuring 10 more. That was the first long form tornado coverage on ABC 33/40; we signed on the air in September 1996. We were the only station in the market with aggressive, long form tornado coverage through the middle of 1998; after the F5 tornado in Birmingham on April 8, 1998 other stations jumped on the bandwagon.

Speaking of ABC 33/40 and weather coverage, you can get our “Ten Years of Alabama Weather” DVD free of charge at any of our sponsor locations; go here for a full list. This DVD features all of the big weather stories in Alabama since 1996 in chronological order; Bill Castle did his usual great job on putting it together.

STORM ALERT 2007: Our first stop on the tour this year is one week from tomorrow night, Thursday February 1, at Shelton State Community College in Tuscaloosa at 7:00. Of course, unless we are snowed out! You will see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe during the spring tornado season, have a chance to win some cool prizes, and meet the entire ABC 33/40 weather team. See all the details here.

WEATHER PARTY: Join the party on our sister site and see the latest weather related news. Register and you can become an editor by submitting links and voting on them.

It was my pleasure to speak with a group of National Weather Service officials (mostly MICs from offices around the Southeast U.S.) this morning at a meeting held here in Birmingham. We are all working together to make the severe weather warning process better. Today at 5:00 look for the kids from Briarwood Christian School on the ABC 33/40 KIDCAM. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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