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RADAR CHECK: At daybreak, the most significant and widespread rain was south of a line from Anniston to Clanton to Thomasville; to the north of that some scattered light rain was in progress, all thanks to short wave energy passing through and the associated surface low not too far from Mobile.
The rain will taper off from west to east during the day as the wave moves northeast, but clouds will linger, and the high will be near 60 degrees.
TOMORROW: A northern branch disturbance will swing a cold front through here tomorrow, so clouds will stay in place, and a band of showers ahead of the front will pass through. Rain amounts tomorrow should be pretty light, mostly under one-quarter of an inch. The GFS is suggesting we hold in the 50s all day tomorrow, but the NAM is a touch warmer with a high in the low to mid 60s.
BIG TIME BLIZZARD: The short wave passing through the Deep South this morning will phase up with the northern branch system, and a major, perhaps historic blizzard will impact the Northeast U.S. late tomorrow into Saturday morning. Some of the models are producing some outrageous snow totals (30-40 inches)… clearly Boston will be buried, and a high chance NYC will see snow up to one foot. Factor in howling winds of over 50 mph, and you have a big time blizzard. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and graphics. Keep mind air traffic will be impacted in a huge way with this system.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We kick it off with a sunny Saturday; the high will be around 60 degrees after a morning low near the freezing mark. But, then a major upper trough lifting out of the Southwest U.S. will spin up a surface low over the Great Plains, and strong south winds will return moisture into the state Sunday, and showers should begin to develop Sunday afternoon. We should see a high in the low 60s Sunday.
GOOD WET-DOWN: Rain and storms will become widespread across North and Central Alabama Sunday night into Monday morning. SPC does not have any formal severe weather risk defined at this point, but we can’t rule out a strong thunderstorm or two. Rain amounts of 1 inch look likely with this round before the rain shifts down into the southern half of Alabama Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Model madness rules for Tuesday. The 06Z GFS keeps North Alabama in dry air, but many other runs have shown a secondary low forming on the front, with another wave of rain and storms for this part of the state Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. We will keep the forecast wet for now. All of the rain should be over by early Wednesday, followed by colder and drier air.
If we do get the secondary surge of rain Tuesday night, the three day rain totals (Sunday through Tuesday) should be up in the two to four inch range, and we will have to watch for flooding problems.
VOODOO SNOW? The GFS remains locked into the idea of a snow threat for parts of the Deep South in the Feb 17-18 time frame, but we all know that these voodoo storms tend to vanish as we get closer. But, the consistency has been pretty remarkable. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.
STORM ALERT 2013 OPENS TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama kicks off tonight; we will be at Holt High School tonight; the show begins at 6:30. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here is the entire Storm Alert tour schedule for the year…
February 7 Holt – Holt High School
February 12 Jasper – CHS Community Building
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I have a weather program this morning at Brookwood Forest Elementary in Mountain Brook… then it is off to Tuscaloosa for the weather tour opening at Holt High School. Won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel, but I will post fresh forecast notes by 4:00. Enjoy the day!
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Category: Alabama's Weather