Another Wet Day; Sun By Thursday

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WATERLOGGED: A strong short wave moving through Texas will enhance rain across Alabama later today and tonight. While the rain is fairly light and spotty early this morning, the rain will be more widespread and heavier from about 12:00 noon until midnight tonight. Additional rain amounts of one to two inches are likely, and the NWS in Birmingham continues a flash flood watch for areas along and south of I-20 through tonight.

FOR THE YEAR: For those asking… Birmingham’s rain total for the year is now 10.37″, and the surplus for the year is 3.80″.

Some light rain could linger into tomorrow morning, and the sky will stay cloudy through the day, but we have great hope of brighter weather as the sun returns in full force on Thursday. We project a high in the upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

QUICK HITTING COLD SHOT: Two fronts will pass through Alabama; the first one will move through North Alabama in Friday fashion Friday afternoon. For the I-20 corridor, we expect a high around 60 degrees Friday with a decent amount of sun, but our friends in the Tennessee Valley will have a high closer to 50 as colder air blows into the state.

SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY? The second front, an Arctic front, will usher in very cold air Saturday. I doubt if we get out of the 30s; the ECMWF hints some of our friends near the Tennessee border won’t get above freezing. Factor in a north wind of 8-16 mph and it will feel even colder.

Models have been waffling on the amount of moisture available Saturday as a very deep, cold upper trough passes overhead. The 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have trended drier, and we won’t change our ongoing forecast. We have mentioned just the chance of a few light snow flurries or snow showers with no accumulation expected. Of course, we will keep an eye on model trends for any possible changes.

Sunday morning will feature a hard freeze. It looks like most places will see a low between 20 and 25, with teens likely for the colder valleys and protected areas across North Alabama. Then, we begin to warm up Sunday afternoon with a high around 50 degrees.

QUICK CHANGES NEXT WEEK: A return flow begins Monday with a surge of moisture moving northward, and the GFS shows a dynamic system blowing in here Tuesday with a good chance of rain and possibly strong thunderstorms.

LATE MONTH: The pattern looks active and wet for Alabama with several periods of rain and storms; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

STORM ALERT 2013 TONIGHT IS IN JASPER: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

TONIGHT Jasper – CHS Community Building
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

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I have a weather program this morning at Northside Middle School in Tuscaloosa County; won’t be able to post an afternoon video due to travel, but I will have a few forecast notes here by 4:00. Enjoy the day, and I hope to see many of you tonight in Jasper at Storm Alert 2013…

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather