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BRIGHTER WEATHER: After some early morning fog, the sky will be mostly sunny across Alabama today; our first sunny day since this past Saturday. Temperatures will rise nicely; most communities will see a high in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.
We will see some increase in clouds tomorrow ahead of a surface front; the RPM has hinted at a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening in advance of the front, and we will probably insert a slight risk of a little light rain in the forecast, but moisture will be very limited and rain amounts, if any, will be light and spotty. The high tomorrow should be close to 60.
SATURDAY COLD SHOT: We start the weekend with a sharp change to colder temperatures Saturday thanks to a deep, cold upper trough forming over the eastern U.S. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s with an any north wind making it feel colder. While the 1000-500 mb thickness values are very low, the 1000-850 mb thickness values (low level) are not quite as extreme, so we might make it into the low 40s, but one way or another it will be a frigid and blustery day. Forcing associated with the upper trough could squeeze out a few snow flurries, but the lack of moisture should mean nothing really significant.
Sunday morning will be cold, with lows in the 20-25 degree range for many communities around here. But, thankfully the cold shot won’t last long with a very progressive pattern… we warm into the 50s Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Winds increase out of the south Monday ahead of a developing storm system over the Great Plains, and we will forecast rain and storms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The GFS suggests our best chance of rain and thunderstorms will come from about midnight Monday night through 12:00 noon Tuesday; there is no surface based instability, so for now we don’t expect any severe weather, although elevated storms are likely. Rain amounts of around one inch are a good bet.
Drier air returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, but another rain producer is likely by the end of the week.
LATE MONTH: The GFS continues to advertise a very active pattern over the latter half of February with frequent rain/storm events; see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
STORM ALERT 2013: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School
All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
I have a weather program today at Oak Grove Elementary School out in western Jefferson County… then I will be live at the Birmingham Home and Garden Show at the BJCC at 4, 5, and 6:00… I will have forecast notes here later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
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Category: Alabama's Weather