Mid 80s By Wednesday; Strong Storms Thursday
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WARMING UP: Low clouds have formed over a pretty good part of Alabama early this morning as low level moisture levels begin to rise. We expect intervals of sunshine today, with a high in the upper 70s for most communities, and the weather will remain dry.
We are projecting highs in the low 80s tomorrow, and mid 80s Wednesday, our warmest weather so far in 2013. Dry tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds. South winds will begin to increase Wednesday, and with mid 80s the air will be pretty unstable Wednesday afternoon, but a capping inversion should keep most of Alabama dry.
For the Birmingham Barons home opener Wednesday night, a very reasonable chance the weather will be dry and warm (but windy) for the game, but we can’t rule out a few widely scattered showers or storms.
TO THE WEST: A significant severe weather threat is shaping up for areas west of Alabama tomorrow and Wednesday as a major upper trough lifts out of the Southwest U.S. All modes of severe weather will be possible in the broad area from Texas to Iowa, and back in the cold air winter storm watches and warnings are up for many states in the western U.S.
Denver will see a high around 70 today, but tomorrow they will be in the teens much of the day with 3-6 inches of snow. No doubt they will wonder what happened to spring.
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY? No doubt there will be some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in Alabama on Thursday, but for now SPC does not have a risk defined in their day four outlook due to model uncertainty.
The GFS remains the faster model, while the NAM and the ECMWF are slower. I believe the primary risk of severe weather in Alabama Thursday will come from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m… and the main risk will come from strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds along a long line of storms (QLCS, or quasi-linear convective system) moving through the state.
For now the severe weather parameters (instability, shear, lapse rates, etc) are not really overwhelming for an April severe weather event… surface based CAPE values remain around 1,200 j/kg or lower, with bulk shear values (surface to 850 mb) of 30 knots or lower. But, that is certainly supportive of some severe weather. And, it is very early in the game since the main system is just now getting into the U.S. upper air network way out west.
We can’t rule out an isolated tornado during the day Thursday, especially if a secondary surface low forms closer to us, and if the storms come through during the afternoon hours when the air will be more unstable.
Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely before the storms exit the state Thursday night.
Of course, we will watch model trends and actual upper air and surface observations very closely in coming days and make adjustments to the forecast as needed. Take a look at the Weather Xtreme video for more on the Thursday situation.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Delightful weather, with sunny mild days and clear cool nights. The high Friday will drop into the mid 60s… we will be close to 70 Saturday, with mid 70s Sunday. The coolest morning will come early Saturday when most places will drop to near 40 degrees… keep in mind the normally colder pockets over North Alabama could see mid 30s with a touch of light frost, but for a majority of Alabama the frost danger for the season ended.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Out in the forecast period beyond 7 days… we really don’t see another significant severe weather setup all the way through April 23 for now; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
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Another busy today… I have weather programs today at Cornerstone School in Woodlawn, and Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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