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Warming Up This Week

| 5:59 am April 15, 2013

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MONDAY MORNING LOOK: Low clouds cover most of Alabama this morning, with some dense fog way down south. Temperatures are generally in the 50s, and there is no rain on radar.

We figure the low clouds will begin to break later this morning, allowing for a partly sunny afternoon. Temperatures should reach the upper 70s today if the sun does make an appearance.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: These days will be more like summer. Very warm with highs in the mid 80s (maybe upper 80s in spots), and very humid with dewpoints up in the 60s. This will make the air unstable, and like a summer day, we will forecast “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon storm on these days is about one in four, and where the storms do form they will pack a punch with some hail and gusty winds possible.

TO THE WEST: SPC has raised a “moderate risk” of severe weather Wednesday for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, where a significant tornado outbreak is likely with many severe weather parameters falling into place.

THURSDAY: SPC defines a severe weather risk for places like Memphis and Jackson, and around here we will stay warm and very humid. An afternoon storm is possible, but they should be very widely spaced.

SEVERE STORMS EARLY FRIDAY: Model data is actually in pretty good agreement; a line of strong to severe storms should move into Alabama very early Friday morning during the pre-dawn hours. While instability values are not very impressive (under 500 j/kg), the wind fields are screaming with a low level jet of over 60 knots. Damaging straight line winds will be possible along the line of storms, but we can’t rule out an isolated, embedded tornado with high bulk shear values in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere.

For now it looks like the primary window for severe weather in Alabama will come from 3:00 a.m. until 11:00 a.m. Friday. The sky should clear Friday afternoon, and we turn cooler with a high in the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday promises to be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 60s. We will begin the day down in the low 40s, and colder pockets across North Alabama could visit the 30s with a touch of light frost in a few spots, but it shouldn’t be widespread. Sunday’s sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 70s.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, details, and some long range thoughts.

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I have a weather program today at Edgewood Elementary in Homewood… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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