Statement from Storm Prediction Center

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AL...MIDDLE AND ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012205Z - 012330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS FROM NRN AL THROUGH ERN KY WILL
   POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SEVERE EVENTS
   SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...AND UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE STORMS
   WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS STRETCHING FROM NCNTRL AL
   THROUGH ERN KY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. ONLY MODEST
   INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE
   TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAK /AOB 25KT/ WITH SWLY 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS.
   STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS...FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD
   BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL/KERR.. 06/01/2013

Category: Alabama's Weather