A Drier Day Today

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The weather pattern that has seen numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring across the Southeast US has changed just slightly to bring Central Alabama a drier day today with showers expected to be in South Alabama and with some slightly drier air filtering into the region from the north. But because of the widespread rain for the last two days, soil moisture is high and we have fog around the area this morning prompting a dense fog advisory. The fog should burn off by 9 am or so clearing the way for a fairly sunny day with highs in the upper 80s.

A small trough over the Southeast US has sharpened just enough to help push the boundary that has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the last two days further south. This means that South Alabama and the coastal sections of Alabama and Northwest Florida will see widespread and numerous showers and thunderstorms today. A large cluster of thunderstorms was moving through the Montgomery-Troy area this morning.

The trough over the Southeast US will keep us dry today and Thursday, however, the trough will gradually be replaced with an upper ridge come Friday and into the weekend. This allows limited moisture to return, so we should see daily scattered showers for Friday and into the weekend. The ridge becomes very strong by Monday, however, the GFS is now suggesting that a strong short wave moving through South Central Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday will flatten the ridge. While the greatest dynamics will remain north of us as we stay with daily chance for showers, the dampening of the ridge should help to limit the heat for us with highs mainly in the lower 90s.

The GFS has done a complete flip on what is going to happen as we peek into week two or voodoo country. Instead of a huge ridge over the eastern half of the country for the end of June as we have been seeing for the last several days, there is now a trough over the eastern third of the US. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I like the looks of the pattern because it would definitely keep the heat in check. Confidence that this will happen, however, is quite low since we’re seeing the GFS change the solution on a daily basis. The GFS maintains more of a troughiness across the eastern US even into early July. I sure hope this is right.

Severe weather threat for the next three days is focused in the North Central US as the westerlies are well north of us. And in the tropics, TD 2 is bound and determined to make it to tropical storm strength. The center of the circulation did emerge into the Southwest Gulf late yesterday, and with a fairly significant reduction in shear expected today, it is probable that strengthening will occur. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has it achieving tropical storm strength later today and maintaining that for several hours before it moves back onto the Mexican coast tonight.

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Enjoy the day. The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted Thursday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather