Another Cool, Wet Day

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The cool and wet pattern that Central Alabama has seen for the last several days will continue today, but there are signs of this pattern letting up. The upper closed low in the vicinity of St. Louis this morning will gradually pull northeastward today and Sunday. As it does, the stream of tropical moisture that has been helping to produce widespread showers and some thunderstorms will weaken and we should return to something more typical of our summer weather. While Sunday is expected to be drier than today, we will still see showers occurring but coverage and hours of rain should be reduced. A nice jet streak was showing up this morning on satellite images which should enhance rainfall across Alabama today.

For today, all of the state of Alabama is in a flash flood watch through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flood warnings are in effect for the Florida Panhandle. Depending on the exact timing seen in the movement of the upper low, the flash flood watches might need to be extended in time through Sunday. See the video for a look at rainfall for the last several days. Clouds and rain should once again keep temperatures holding in the 70s which is about 10 to 12 degrees below our 30-year average high of 90 for early July.

The model forecasts show a fairly fast transition of the upper low into an open trough that moves into New England by Monday afternoon. While the trough does exit quickly, it does leave behind a weakness between the Bermuda high to our east and the strong ridge to our west. This will keep us in those diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But by Wednesday, another change is beginning to take shape for the end of the week. Yup, no lack of weather features to keep meteorologists busy. The upper ridge over the west builds northward as a strong short wave moves out of South Central Canada into the western Great Lakes. Thursday and Friday it digs into the eastern US as a fairly sharp trough. Keep in mind that we don’t usually see cold fronts reaching well into the Southeast US during the summer months, especially July and August. However, the GFS is suggesting a front boundary coming into the Southeast US on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF shows something similar but slower to occur. So since we’re further out in time and the major two models are not in close agreement, confidence in this solution is not high. I also note that the GFS MOS numbers do not seem to reflect the presence of a frontal boundary, but those numbers came off the 00Z run and not the latest 06Z run being discussed here. So I’m hopeful that we could see another round of somewhat drier air make it here next weekend.

If the GFS is correct on the strength of the upper trough and even if it is off on the timing a bit, we would definitely be staying away from any extreme heat until much later in July.

Tropics are somewhat quiet. There are two areas being watched by the NHC, however, neither of them appears likely to develop for the next couple of days. And the main severe weather threat, outside of flash flooding, remains along the northern tier of the US.

The GFS maintains a trough over the eastern US through the 17th of July, but by the 21st, the sprawling western US ridge is affecting much of the eastern two thirds of the country indicating hotter weather.

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I anticipate posting the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. Stay dry in our wet pattern. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather