Hit And Miss Showers/Storms

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RADAR CHECK: Very typical summer day for Alabama, although temperatures are below average (Birmingham reports 89 degrees at 3:00). On radar, we have the classic case of “widely scattered afternoon showers”… the showers are rather small, and in totally random locations with little movement. They will fade away once the sun goes down later tonight.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms on both days, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should be out at times. A surface boundary will drop in here late Thursday, and the high resolution NAM hints the most widespread showers and storms could very well move down into South Alabama by Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs should hold in the 87 to 90 degree range.

FRIDAY: The GFS continues the idea of dry air moving into North Alabama. In fact, the 12Z run of the model has the entire northern half of the state pretty much rain-free Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and lower humidity levels. We will move in that direction in our forecast; the high Friday will be in the upper 80s.

OUR WEEKEND: Model consistency is not good… the latest GFS takes the TUTT low pretty far to the south of here, over the northern Gulf of Mexico, meaning we could very well stay dry Saturday with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 80s. Then, scattered showers or storms are possible statewide Sunday, but it won’t be an “all day” rain, and the sun will be shining occasionally. Sunday’s high will be between 87 and 90.

NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on Tropical Storm Chantal. And, with the uncertainty, our forecast will pretty much reflect climatology… partly sunny days, some risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Afternoon highs next week will be around 90 degrees. But, keep in mind this could change if Chantal begins a drift to the west.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: Although the system looks pretty ragged due to the fast forward motion (25-30 mph), NHC has upper the maximum sustained winds to 65 mph this afternoon as the system moves into the Caribbean. Not much change in the overall track; it will move over Hispaniola tomorrow/tomorrow night, and should be over the Bahamas by Friday. It remains to be seen how Chantal will emerge after interaction with Hispaniola, but conditions seem to favor strengthening over the Bahamas this weekend. The 12Z model set shifted a bit to the right, hinting at a landfall around Savannah, or maybe even Charleston. But, other runs have taken Chantal westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There simply isn’t enough skill in a specific forecast more than five days in advance, so stay tuned.

One way or another, the main impact for the Southeast U.S. will be lots of rain.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Today has turned out to be pretty nice from Panama City to Gulf Shores, with a good supply of sunshine and only widely scattered showers and storms. For the rest of the week, we project about 3 to 5 hours of sunshine with the daily disk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunshine could be a little more limited this weekend due to the TUTT low passing just south of the Central Gulf Coast with an increase in the number of showers and storms.

The weather next week will all depend on the track of Chantal, and there isn’t enough confidence for a really specific forecast for now. Stay tuned, and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I had a great time today visiting with the Master Gardeners of Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Tags: showers

Category: Alabama's Weather