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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Afternoon Update

| 12:03 pm September 20, 2013

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel… on the road to Atlanta for an Emmy function tonight**

RAIN GETTING CLOSER: At midday rain has crossed over the Mississippi River ahead of a cold front…

Screen Shot 2013-09-20 at 11.57.17 AM

The rain should enter Northwest Alabama tonight… in terms of high school football games, there will be a risk of rain over the northwest part of the state; counties like Colbert, Lauderdale, Franklin, Marion, Lamar, Pickens, Fayette, Winston, Lawrence, and Limestone. Elsewhere, the rain should hold off until the games are complete. Lightning, while not totally out of the question, isn’t likely as the rain arrives initially.

TOMORROW: The new 12Z model sets are slower with the end of the rain, making it a close call for evening football games, including the Alabama/Colorado State game.

See model output below…

mgWeb_WRF_20130920-120000_ASE_ECONUS_F00360000_PwinterThickness_R12km

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No doubt rain is likely during the day tomorrow for the tailgaters, and for now we will still forecast the rain to end before the Alabama/Colorado State begins at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff), but be aware it is a very close call, and we might have to re-insert some risk of rain during the first half if the slower trend continues. We do note the 12Z run of the RPM model does indeed keep some rain over Tuscaloosa past 6pm… but for now that is an outlier. Temperatures will be in the 70s during the game.

For Auburn’s game at Baton Rouge against LSU (6:45p CT kickoff), no doubt we will need to keep a chance of rain in the forecast. Not sure it rains the entire game, but some rain sure looks likely. And, like Tuscaloosa, most of the day tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be very wet. In fact, the NWS in New Orleans has just issued a flash flood watch that includes Baton Rouge.

UAB and Samford have mid-afternoon home games in Birmingham… rain is very possible during the first half, but the rain should end as the games are being played. Temperatures will be in the 70s.

Again we stress the challenging part of the forecast is timing the end of the rain, and with some model uncertainty now it is subject to change, so be sure and stay tuned for updated forecasts here later today, tonight, and tomorrow….

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