Cold Front Headed Our Way

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STILL DRY TODAY: No real weather change for Alabama today; the sky partly to mostly sunny with a high between 77 and 81 degrees for most communities; that is a little above the average high of 76. To the west, a large upper trough is over the western half of the nation, and we will keep an eye on that as it will major changes later in the week.

TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY: There will be a slow increase in clouds across the state during the day tomorrow, but I think the weather stays dry with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Then, on Wednesday, we will forecast occasional showers as a cold front slowly moves into our state. No severe weather, and probably no thunder. And, rain amounts should be under 1/2 inch.

The GFS shows the rain evening Wednesday evening, followed by sharply cooler air on Thursday, the coolest so far this season. We will forecast a clearing sky Thursday (I really don’t think we need to hold any chance of rain in the forecast) with a high only in the mid 60s with a very cool north breeze.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday morning will feature a low between 40 and 45 degrees for most North/Central Alabama communities, some of those traditionally cold pockets over North Alabama could very well see upper 30s for the first time this season. Be sure you know where your jackets and sweaters are. Friday will be a sun filled day with a high between 68 and 71 degrees.

There is some model disagreement concerning the weather Saturday. The GFS promises a beautiful day, with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s, but the ECMWF (European) model shows a wave moving into the state with rain at times. The GFS has been performing better in the day 3-7 time frame in recent months, so for now we will reject the Euro solution and go with a very pleasant weekend in our forecast. Mostly sunny, cool days and clear chilly nights; early morning lows will remain in the 40s, with highs in the upper 60s Saturday, and low 70s Sunday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Looks fine. Showers during the day Wednesday will end Wednesday night, and at this point we will forecast cool and dry weather Thursday through Sunday. The high will be in the mid 60s Thursday, upper 60s Friday and Saturday, and low 70s Sunday. Early morning lows will be down in the 40s, so the guys selling firewood should do some brisk business. As stated above, we should mention there is the one model that shows some rain Saturday, but we will go with the more optimistic “Chamber of Commerce” forecast for now.

TROPICS: Hurricane season runs through the end of November, but major hurricanes are very rare in the Atlantic basin past mid-October as the water cools down. There is one weak, disorganized wave east of the Windward Islands, but it is not expected to develop. All of the action is over in the West Pacific; Typhoon Wipha will sideswipe the coast of Japan later this week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Edgewood Elementary in Homewood… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather