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RADAR CHECK: Most of the rain across the Deep South remains just northwest of Alabama this morning; just a few sprinkles showing up in Lauderdale County. The band of rain will slowly move into the state during the next six hours, but the morning hours should remain generally rain-free for our part of the state. In fact, for places like Alexander City, Montgomery, Selma, and Auburn, all of the daytime hours today should be dry, but the sky will be generally cloudy.
WET WEATHER RETURNS: We will forecast occasional showers for North/Central Alabama this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. It sure seems like the most widespread rain will come from about 3:00 p.m. today through 3:00 p.m. tomorrow; the NAM is printing 0.75″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is very similar at 0.74″. The air is stable, so there is no risk of severe weather, and I doubt if we hear much thunder at all. Just good ole fashioned rain.
We will be in the 70s today, but tomorrow will be much cooler with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 60s most of the day.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be a delightful autumn day, with ample sunshine. We begin the day down in the mid to upper 40s, and the high will be in the low 70s.
The last few computer model runs have continued to look dry for North and Central Alabama for Saturday, so after a one forecast cycle rain scare, I think we can back down and just about remove the risk of showers for our part of the state. The GFS, the NAM, and the ECMWF all agree now. In fact, most models keep the showers offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. So, Saturday and Sunday look just fine with a partly to mostly sunny sky both days. The high will be in the low to mid 70s; early morning lows will be in the 46-51 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, but all of a sudden the 00Z GFS brings in a big rain mass in here Tuesday. First time we have seen that; we will keep eye on future runs for trends. Some hint a good shot of cold air blows in here late in the week.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: A good chance the rain will end by the time high football games begin tomorrow night with a clearing sky, and Friday night looks great with clear and cool conditions. Both nights temperatures will fall through the 50s; you will need a jacket.
Alabama will host the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; the sky will be mostly clear; about 68 degrees at kickoff, with temperatures falling into the 50s by the second half.
Auburn is on the road; they will take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, TX Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy, but for now the chance of a shower during the game is only about one in five. About 72 degrees at kickoff, with temperatures falling into the 60s during the second half.
RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Rain is likely at the Superspeedway tomorrow with a cloudy sky along with temperatures in the 60s. But, everything looks great Friday through Sunday now, with partly to mostly sunny days and clear chilly nights. Highs will be in the 69-74 degree range on these three days, with early morning lows between 45 and 50 degrees. We are very comfortable now removing the risk of rain for Saturday.
TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.
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Category: Alabama's Weather