DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006
VALID 081200Z – 131200Z
…DISCUSSION…
LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE SOLUTION
OF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON 11/10
AND SHIFTING IT INTO THE MS VALLEY BY 11/11. HOWEVER…SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SHARPER TROUGH WITH MUCH DEEPER CYCLOGENESIS THAN
THE GFS. MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
AT THIS TIME FRAME. AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL SRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER…MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUGGEST IT IS STILL A BIT PRE-MATURE TO
INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
November 5th, 2006 at 5:16 pm
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006
VALID 081200Z – 131200Z
…DISCUSSION…
LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE SOLUTION
OF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON 11/10
AND SHIFTING IT INTO THE MS VALLEY BY 11/11. HOWEVER…SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SHARPER TROUGH WITH MUCH DEEPER CYCLOGENESIS THAN
THE GFS. MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
AT THIS TIME FRAME. AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL SRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER…MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUGGEST IT IS STILL A BIT PRE-MATURE TO
INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/05/2006