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Storms Arrive Before The Week Is Over

| October 28, 2013 @ 2:54 pm

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RADAR CHECK: As expected, the light rain we dealt with during the morning hours has ended, and the sky is beginning to clear over North/Central Alabama. Temperatures are near 70 degrees in most places. Tonight will be clear and we will drop into the mid 50s early tomorrow. Some fog is possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The weather turns warmer; the high tomorrow will rise into the upper 70s, and we might even touch 80 degrees by Wednesday. The average high for the end of October here is 70 degrees. Both days will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and we do not expect any showers.

HALLOWEEN NIGHT STORMS: Getting better clarity on the end of the week storm event. Here are the headlines…

*The main window for storms across North/Central Alabama will come from 9:00 p.m. Thursday through 12:00 noon Friday. A decent chance most of the trick or treating will be wrapped up by the time the storms get here. The exception could be the northwest corner of the state, around Florence and Muscle Shoals, where rain could begin as early as 6:00 p.m.

*Rain amounts of around one inch are likely during that nine hour period, with isolated amounts to one and a half inch. Heavier rains should come over Northwest Alabama.

SEVERE THREAT? After a review of the 12Z models, I would say the severe weather threat is still somewhat marginal, although the NAM is more aggressive with helicity and bulk shear values. The primary limiting factor is very low instability; models are showing surface based CAPE (convective available potential energy) values here under 500 j/kg. I would say severe weather is a distinct possibility for cities like Memphis and Tupelo Thursday evening; there might even be an isolated tornado or two there.

Then, later Thursday night, as the storms move into Alabama, the storms should weaken with the lower instability. Also, dynamic support will lessen during the night as the surface low and upper trough pass well to the north.

No doubt we could see a few strong storms late Thursday night or early Friday morning with gusty winds, but again at this point the overall severe weather threat looks low.

But, remember, when it comes to thunderstorms expect the unexpected. Our fall tornado season begins Friday (November 1), and sometimes models struggle with severe weather parameters with cool season events, so we will keep a close eye on things as the event gets closer.

Showers and storms will end from west to east during the day Friday.

OUR WEEKEND: Dry and cool with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. Highs drop into the 60s, and we will be close to 40 early Sunday, with 30s for the colder valleys. Looks like our next chance of showers or storms will come toward the middle part of next week.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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