Showers By Friday; Storms This Weekend

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SEVERE CLEAR: Nothing but blue sky and sunshine across Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 60s. Colder air will slip in here tonight, and we expect another freeze early tomorrow with a low between 28 and 32 degrees for most communities.

The high tomorrow will drop back into the mid 50s, but the sky will stay sunny thanks to a very dry airmass. Another sunny day is likely Thursday, with a high in the low 60s.

MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY: We will introduce the chance of scattered showers Friday afternoon as moisture levels rise. The high Friday afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s, and the sky will be generally cloudy during the day.

TO THE WEST: A deep upper low will be over the far northern Gulf of California Friday, and how that behaves after it lifts out will determine the weather for much of the central and eastern U.S.

WEEKEND STORMS: A surface low Saturday will form over Southwest Arkansas, with a warm front extending to the east. We will forecast a good chance of showers and storms Saturday, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun might break through a time or two. The warm front should be north of here by afternoon, and the GFS is printing a high of 75 degrees Saturday. If this verifies, it will be a new record high for December 21, beating the old record of 73 set in 1923.

The new model set this morning still shows a considerable difference between the American global model (the GFS), which is faster and more aggressive with severe weather parameters, and the European model (the ECMWF) which is slower with a less than impressive severe weather setup.

The GFS continues to show the potential for severe weather across Alabama Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with a strong low level jet in excess of 60 mph (winds at 5,000 feet), surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s, and low bulk shear of 40 knots. The ECMWF shows a weaker line of storms Sunday evening as the main upper support lifts away from Alabama.

We will pretty much take the compromise for now, and forecast the main window for strong to severe storms from midnight Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon. We will be much more specific on the magnitude of the threat and the modes of severe weather to expect early tomorrow morning. For now there is no formal severe weather risk defined by the Storm Prediction Center due to the model conflicts.

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Monday will be dry, but breezy and colder with a high in the 49-53 degree range. Tuesday and Christmas Day will be dry and cool; highs in the low 50s, lows around freezing. Just about what you expect in late December in Alabama based on seasonal averages.

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I will be live at Southern Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, 6, and 10:00 as we kick off our annual 26 hour Toys for Tots drive to end the campaign. Please bring a new unwrapped toy by sometime tonight or tomorrow; we still need about 25,000 toys to meet the demand. There are so many families in need across Alabama. The U.S. Marines will deliver the toys next week.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather