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RAIN GETS CLOSER: A large mass of rain and thunderstorms is moving into western Mississippi as I write this, and should enter West Alabama at some point this afternoon. Our forecast package will highlight periods of rain and a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow as a strong upper air system passes overhead. Extraction from the NAM/WRF model suggests 1.04″ of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS is much more aggressive with 1.95″. There is very little surface based instability showing up, so severe weather programs are not expected to be significant, but there is a high degree of helicity and vertical wind shear, so we will keep a close eye on developments. Remember, with thunderstorms expect the unexpected.

WEDNESDAY: A few stray morning showers are possible on Wednesday, but for now we expect Wednesday afternoon to be dry over much of the state. With such cold air aloft to the east, I guess a few afternoon showers are possible near the Georgia border, however.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Beautiful weather for these two days with mild afternoon. Temperatures should soar well into the 70s with a good supply of sunshine.

THE WEEKEND AHEAD: Last week there was some concern over the potential for severe weather during this time frame, but model agreement is much better, and it looks like a weak system will bring some risk of showers Saturday night, but rainfall should be light and spotty, and no severe weather problems will develop. Temperatures will stay mild, with highs in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: We have been concerned about the chance of a significant severe weather outbreak at mid-month, and the GFS is now zeroing in on a system 8 to 9 days from now (November 14-15) as the “big one”. A very dynamic, phased upper trough is expected to swing through, and with Alabama firmly in the warm sector there will be some risk of severe weather and heavy rain. Possibly a significant risk… but we are out there in “voodoo land” for another day or two. We will have a much better grasp on the system by the middle of the week. A shot of colder air should follow this storm system for a couple of days.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Saturday is the big day… our once a year severe weather training event will begin at the BJCC at 9:30. We will be in North Meeting Room A… the 2007 Birmingham International Auto Show is also going on this weekend; I will try to post more specific instructions on how to get into the facility later today. Just watch for the signs… If you like to read the blog, you will love this event. Brian Peters, who has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years, will teach both a basic and an advanced SKYWARN session, and I will do a program on the new ABC 33/40 Skywatcher program. Doesn’t cost a dime, and you don’t have to register. Just show up! I hope to see you there.

EUROPE COLD WAVE: A major cold wave is impacting Europe, causing major power outages. Read the storm and more over on our sister site, weatherparty.com.

I will be down in Bibb County today speaking at West Blocton High School… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted on time. Enjoy your Monday!