Warmer But Wetter

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According to preliminary data from the National Weather Service, January, 2014, in Central Alabama will come in around the 11th coldest month based on the daily average highs, but will be the 3rd coldest month based on daily lows behind only January of 1940 and 1977. I’m pretty sure we all suspected something along these lines since it has been downright cold. The 4 degree low at my house on January 30th was the lowest I’ve seen since I moved here in 1989 with the exception of March, 1993, and my weather station was not in place then. But it looks like February is going to start on a somewhat mild note, and that’s just fine by me. We’re still going to have to keep a close eye on what continues to be an active pattern for the US.

This morning the upper flow pattern at 500 millibars shows a trough over the western US with a ridge over the eastern US. This pattern is forecast to persist through much of the week ahead, so it will keep the Southeast under a southwesterly flow aloft which should keep us warmer than usual but it will also keep us wet. The GFS holds this overall pattern for several days as several short wave impulses move out of the Southwest US. This means that we’ll be seeing cold fronts coming toward our area, but the coldest air is expected to stay off to our north and northwest.

Today should be dry but cloudy as low clouds were pushing northward along the Alabama/Mississippi line. So we’ll see some sunshine today but clouds will be in the mix, too. Look for a high around 60 to 62 – nice! While the moisture is definitely on the increase, I don’t expect to see any significant chance for rain today.

Rain chances climb Sunday as one impulse rides northeastward out of Texas across the Mid-South into the Central Appalachians. Cold air remains across the Ohio River Valley with rain coming to an end on Monday. But we will cool down somewhat with highs in the 50s. Yet another impulse kicks out of the Southwest US on Tuesday with a surface low forming in the vicinity of Southeast Texas and moving northeast into New England by Wednesday afternoon. We’ll have to watch to see how the potential for severe weather develops. Right now it does not appear that this will be a big severe weather producer, however, what appears marginal right now could become better developed as we get closer to the event and the details in the mesoscale become clearer.

We should warm up into the 60s Tuesday before another front passes through Central Alabama and drops us back into the 50s. Because of the southwesterly flow aloft, it appears unlikely that the really cold air will make it into this area.

We end the upcoming week on a dry note until Saturday when the strongest impulse in this parade kicks our way from Texas. At this point we could see the pattern shift back to a trough along the Mississippi River with cold air once again impinging on the Southeast US. Right now there could be a potential for a round of severe weather for the Southeast US while further west in Oklahoma and Arkansas and Missouri and Kansas they may be dealing with a substantial winter storm. We’re edging into voodoo, so no one knows for sure, but this possibility is certainly on the table.

Looking out into Week 2, the GFS signals a return to colder weather for the eastern half of the country with the long wave trough once again becoming established along the Mississippi River by mid-February, so don’t let the warmer week ahead get you to put the winter clothing away just yet.

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I’m excited about the upcoming Storm Alert Tour from the Weather Department at ABC 3340. Our first stop is planned for Gadsden on February 6th with a program that begins at 6:30 pm. Hope you can get by to say hello. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather