Dense Fog and Rain

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No shadows for groundhogs in Central Alabama as dense fog and clouds blanket a good portion of the Southeast US this morning. Early morning drivers need to allow some extra time to reach their destinations. Foggy conditions should improve in the 8 to 10 am time frame as the fog lifts and visibility improves. Another interesting temperature trace over the last 24 hours as the temperature flattened out around 11 pm last night and actually have been slowly rising this morning.

Our Skywatcher in Black Creek reported this morning that his 6 am temperature was at 48 but he still dipped to 32 for a low before the temperature began to climb. Looks like in spite of the clouds, fog, and rain later that we’ll see the temperature rise into the lower and middle 60s across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching cold front. There is some instability with the approaching front, so we could get some thunderstorms, but the current data does not suggest that thunderstorms will reach severe limits. The primary area where thunderstorms could approach severe criteria is over southern Louisiana where CAPE values and richer low level moisture appear supportive of near-severe storms. We’ll have to keep an eye on that area to see exactly how the mesoscale actually develops.

Precipitable values are pretty high for this time of year, so we’ll have to be watching for heavy rain potential. Flash flooding is not expected since we’ve seen a fairly long spell of dry weather. But with rain coming quickly again Tuesday and early Wednesday, this will need careful watching for any potential flash flooding threats. There is also a band of winter weather with freezing rain, sleet and snow stretching from West Texas all the way to southern Pennsylvania. So if you have plans to travel northward today, you might want to assess your route of travel and perhaps leave earlier or consider delaying your trip.

The front should move through Central Alabama, stall out, and then move back on Tuesday along with another upper level impulse coming out of the Southwest US. That upper level impulse reaches Pennsylvania by midday on Wednesday allowing us to cool down and dry out before the next system approaches on Friday and Saturday. Friday looks mainly dry as that next short wave begins to kick out of Texas Saturday. Once again, there is potential for severe weather to develop over the Southeast US ahead of this negatively tilted trough. Cold air digging into the Central US and coming southward into Oklahoma and North Texas could also bring another round of winter weather to North Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas. A surface low will develop in the vicinity of South Louisiana on Saturday and move northeast across Alabama on Sunday, so we will need to see how and where the warm sector develops for the potential for severe storms next weekend. Right now it would appear that it could be somewhat further south of Central Alabama, but even a small change in the exact location of the surface low could change all of that. Since we’re verging on voodoo country, it is unwise to try to be very specific that far out.

Not much change to the overall long range pattern with a deep trough in the eastern US. The GFS does have that trough a bit further east than the run yesterday morning, which would put the extreme cold over the Mid-Atlantic states with a potential winter storm for them. But this is way into voodoo country.

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Hope your groundhog doesn’t see his shadow! James Spann will have the next full edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Stay tuned to the Blog for latter updates on our active weather pattern. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather