Another Soaking Ahead For Alabama

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COMPLEX, ACTIVE PATTERN: No dull moments in the weather office with a fast, wavy zonal flow sets up across North America like this. We just take them one storm system at a time.

TODAY/TONIGHT: Showers will begin to break out across Alabama this afternoon in a warm air advection pattern; temperatures will rise to near 60 degrees, with south winds picking up into the 10-20 mph range tonight. The most widespread rain should come from about 3:00 p.m. today until 3:00 a.m. tomorrow; rain amounts of one inch are likely.

While there is very good dynamic support, thermodynamics are basically non existent, and we do not expect any severe weather tonight with hardly any available surface based instability. Winds will be gusty, and the rain could be heavy at times, but there is no formal risk of severe weather from SPC, and we just don’t expect any issues.

TO THE NORTH: The system that will bring rain to Alabama tonight will bring a major snow event in the colder air from the Great Plains to New England. Cities like Kansas City, Indianapolis, Pittsburg, New York City, and Boston will see plenty of snow.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days should be dry and chilly. Highs in the 40s; we drop down into the mid to upper 20s at daybreak Thursday. A mix of sun and clouds both days.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Confidence in the forecast is very low. The latest two runs of the GFS have really backed off on the intensity of our weekend storm. A weaker, higher latitude upper trough will bring some risk of rain to the state, but new model data hints Friday could be dry, and rain amounts over the weekend will be light. Best chance of rain Saturday, Saturday night, into early Sunday, but it won’t rain the entire time, and if you believe the last few global model runs, rain will be rather light.

Colder air spills into the state Sunday with potential for falling temperatures, and perhaps a few snow flakes on the back side of the departing storm. The weaker solution in recent runs means no accumulation. But again, this is a low confidence forecast. Let’s get tonight’s weather system out of here, and we will have a much better look at the weekend situation tomorrow morning.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday look chilly but dry with a good supply of sunshine both days; medium range guidance continues to hint at a rain event around Thursday (February 13).

STORM ALERT 2014: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama kicks off this Thursday; we will be at Gadsden City High School at 6:30 (doors open at 5:00). You will get an introduction to storm spotting, see the “good, the bad, and the ugly” concerning last week’s snow, learn how to stay safe this tornado season, and have a chance to win some cool stuff. If you have kids that love weather, bring them. They will love it. Hope to see you Thursday evening in Gadsden.

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I will be doing a weather program for the kids today at Sumter County HeadStart in Livingston… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather