Rain Tomorrow Night; Some Snow Early Wed?
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BIG CHANGES COMING: Another fine day across the great state of Alabama; sunshine through high clouds and temperatures mostly in the low 60s along the I-20/59 corridor. Cooler to the north with 50s over the Tennessee Valley, and warmer to the south with temperatures near 70 degrees at Montgomery. No rain on the radar.
Clouds increase tonight ahead of an Arctic front, and some scattered light rain could break out across the state during the day tomorrow. Rain will become more widespread tomorrow night, with amounts of around 1/2 inch likely.
SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING? The 12Z run of the GFS model is clearly the most aggressive with the potential for a rain to snow setup during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. BUFKIT analysis using data from the GFS prints just over two inches of snow around Birmingham early Wednesday, but for now that is an outlier. The high resolution RPM, which has performed very well this winter season, shows no snow accumulation, along with the NAM.
One thing to consider is that soil temperatures are running near 50 degrees, so if some snow goes come down, much of it will simply melt away.
So, for now, we will reject the GFS solution and just mention a chance of rain possibly changing to light snow or snow flurries early Wednesday with no significant accumulation.
MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN HERE: Wednesday will be a different kind of day; we will struggle to reach the low 40s with a brisk north wind of 10-20 mph. The sky will clear during the day, and the wind will die down Wednesday night allowing temperatures to drop quickly. Our coldest morning will come early Thursday when most places will see a low near 20 degrees; the colder valleys across North Alabama will drop into the mid to upper teens.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The good news is that late season cold snaps usually don’t last long. We warm to near 50 on Thursday with sunshine in full supply, and Friday will see a high in the upper 50s with a pretty decent amount of sunshine. Clouds will increase Friday night.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The latest GFS run looks pretty dry this weekend, but the Euro (ECMWF) shows a decent wave moving through with a chance of showers Friday night into the day Saturday, and I believe that is probably the correct solution. I don’t think the rain will be especially heavy, but no doubt we will need to mention some risk of showers as the weekend begins. Sunday should be relatively dry, but a stronger system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama early next week on Monday. Highs over the weekend will be around 60 degrees, close to seasonal averages for early March.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
STORM ALERT 2014: Our annual severe weather awareness show continues this week… we will be at Calera High School tomorrow night, and Oxford High School Thursday night. The shows begin at 6:30; doors open at 5:00. Come meet the ABC 33/40 Weather Team, get some cool free stuff, see some great weather stories, and learn how to keep your family safe during the tornado season. Keep in mind the spring tornado season begins in just a few days (March, April, May). Hope to see you there.
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I had a great time today seeing the second graders at Oneonta Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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