Wet Start for Central Alabama

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Rain developed and moved into and across Central Alabama overnight with some spots recording over an inch of rain so far. The weather was somewhat stormier across Southwest Alabama where the NWS in Mobile had issued a couple of tornado warnings and a tornado watch was in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida until noon. Greatest instability with this system appears to stay close to the coast coming inland as far as about Montgomery. But the double nature of the surface low makes marginally strong storms possible as far north as the Tennessee River Valley. The lack of much lightning activity across North and Central Alabama suggests that the strongest instability will be confined to the area south of about Montgomery where dew points were in the lower 60s. We’ll need to watch any northward progression of the instability for additional development of strong storms, but at this writing the threat appears minimal.

The weather will stay somewhat wet and unsettled through Monday until the positively tilted upper trough works its way by us. Satellite images indicate the presence of some mid-level drying to our west, so the rainfall blanketing the area this morning will likely come to an end by midday but there still remains a likelihood of additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm until the weather stabilizes with the passage of the upper trough on Monday. Temperature forecasting today is going to be tough, too, because the highs will depend on just how far north the warm air can push. As of this writing, it would appear likely that Central Alabama will only see highs in the 60s.

The weather winds down Monday with the passage of the upper trough as everything shifts eastward. The trough passing the Southeast today and Monday will be followed quickly by another and colder upper short wave, however, this one appears likely to stay north of us as it crosses the Great Lakes. While it may drag another cold front down into the Southeast US, it appears unlikely that enough moisture will return in order to bring any rain to the area at midweek. Moisture return with the passage of closely spaced systems can be a forecast issue, so we’ll watch to see how that evolves, but for now the forecast looks dry with just some clouds. After a coolish Monday, temperatures should return to the 60s at midweek.

As the upper air pattern flattens and becomes nearly zonal across the southern tier of the country, we should see dry and warming weather into the end of the week with highs coming back into the 70s by Friday. A slight deepening of the trough over the eastern US by Saturday could bring another front into the area Saturday and Sunday with some chance for showers. The big question for this front will again be the presence – or absence – of moisture for the system to work with. But with the upper flow going nearly zonal, the front is likely to wash out into the weekend with no major air mass change and highs in the 70 to 74 range.

Peeking out into Week 2, the overall upper air pattern remains fairly active with a steady series of short waves moving through the flow to keep some sort of rain chance every few days. Yesterday the long range GFS lacked any significant weather systems that might provide some threat for severe weather, but that has changed on this run. Around the 28th of March, the GFS shows a strong short wave trough with a possible negative tilt to it, suggesting the potential for a severe weather threat. But this is voodoo country, and we saw how much it changed from yesterday to today.

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CENTRAL ALABAMA NWA: The first meeting of the year of the local chapter of the National Weather Association (NWA) will be Monday night at 7 pm at the Homewood Suites in Riverchase. Kevin Laws of the National Weather Service in Birmingham will team up with Bob Dreisewerd from Baron Services to talk all about weather radar, including the new SAILS severe weather scanning strategy for the WSR-88D radar. You can get more information at the NWA Groupspaces site

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Stay dry and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather