Warmer Days Ahead; Moisture Levels Will Rise

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SUNNY, COOL LATE MARCH DAY: Hard to find a decent cloud in the Alabama sky today, but temperatures remain well below average. Some North Alabama communities are still in the 40s early this afternoon.

Tonight will be cold, but not as cold as last night. Clearly the colder pockets across North Alabama will see another freeze; places like Valley Head, Fort Payne, and Black Creek should see a low in the 28-32 degree range. Keep in mind some of these communities saw upper teens early this morning (Black Creek and Valley Head dropped to 18). Most cities, however, will see a low in the mid 30s tonight and early tomorrow.

WARMING TREND BEGINS TOMORROW: We rise into the 60s tomorrow as a warming trend begins. Moisture levels will also slowly rise, and we project a mix of sun and clouds. Just a small risk of a shower during the day; showers are more likely late tomorrow night as a cold front approaches.

To the west, SPC has much of Arkansas and Missouri in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

FRIDAY: Showers and storms will increase across Alabama, but the upper support will lift out well to the northeast, and with marginal instability we don’t expect any severe weather. In terms of timing, the best chance of rain will come during the morning hours Friday. I sure can’t rule out a shower Friday afternoon or Friday night, but there should be a relative lull in rain activity then. The day will be mild with a high in the low to mid 70s.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING? SPC has a pretty good part of North Alabama in a “slight risk” for severe weather during this period as a secondary low forms to the west. The main window for this second round of storms will come from about 12:00 midnight Friday night through 12:00 noon Saturday; the latest GFS run has shifted surface low position more to the south, which would lessen any severe weather threat for North Alabama. Also, instability and shear values are rather marginal, so at this point I don’t think severe weather will be too much of an issue for our state.

However, this is late March and we are getting into the core of our spring tornado season, so any system this time of the year has to be watched closely.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: The rain will end from west to east during the midday hours Saturday; the sun might pop out late in the day. Saturday will be comfortable with a high in the low 70s. Then, Sunday promises to be a delightful day with ample sunshine and a high near 70 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Look for mostly sunny mild days and clear, cool nights Monday through Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come Thursday or Thursday night (April 3)… too early to determine if there will be a severe weather threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Tomorrow will be cloudy at times with some risk of scattered showers, then showers and storms are more likely Friday and Saturday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. The weather on the coast will be mostly sunny Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 60s, with 70s just a few miles inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is only 59 degrees.

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Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather