Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Storms Arrive Early Tomorrow

| April 3, 2014 @ 3:41 pm

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THIS AFTERNOON: As expected, it is a warm and mostly dry afternoon across the great state of Alabama. Mixed sun and clouds; temperatures generally between 77 and 81 degrees. And, nothing on the radar.

TO THE WEST: Tornado watches are up in the zone from North Texas to southern Missouri this afternoon, and SPC maintains an enhanced “moderate risk” of severe weather for much of Arkansas, South Missouri, West Tennessee, and Northwest Mississippi…

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The 12Z model set suggests a slower eastward progression of the storms… the high resolution NAM now shows the line moving into the northwest corner of Alabama around 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

TOMORROW: The line of storms could be strong to severe as it moves through the Muscle Shoals area with gusty winds, but we expect the line to weaken as it moves deeper into Alabama as the upper support lifts out well to the northeast. While SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for much of Alabama, I would suggest the severe weather threat is minimal for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden.

The best chance of rain will come during the morning hours; drier air begins to arrive tomorrow afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly sunny and cooler with a high in the upper 60s. But, clouds return quickly Saturday night, and rain moves into the state Sunday. Looks like a soaking rain event for North-Central Alabama Sunday afternoon through Monday morning as a surface low moves from near Lake Charles, LA to Jackson, TN. Unfortunately this track will put much of Alabama in the “warm sector” late Sunday night, and there is some concern that severe storms could become an issue.

The primary limiting factor for severe weather Sunday night is the lack of instability. Surface based CAPE values are very low, so hopefully that will mitigate a big severe weather issue. However, strong wind fields and high low level shear values will be in place and we will need to watch developments closely in coming days.

Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely before drier air arrives Monday night. Some flooding issues could develop.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Some light rain is possible Tuesday as an upper trough passes overhead; the day will be mostly cloudy with a high in the 60s. The sky will clear Wednesday, and we are still looking at potential for a late season frost or freeze event early Thursday morning. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I enjoyed being in Guin this morning for a special 40th anniversary event as we remembered the “Superoutbreak” of tornadoes April 3, 1974. An EF-5 tornado killed 25 people in Guin; 77 in all died in Alabama that night. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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