Sunday’s Severe Weather Threat

The latest day two convective outlook from the SPC continues to highlight areas of the Northern Gulf Coast in a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday. The risk is valid from 7AM Sunday to 7AM Monday and covers areas of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle. Areas in and around Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Jackson, Mobile, and Pensacola are included. The risk extends north into Central Alabama and approaches the U.S. Highway 82 corridor which extends from Pickens County down to Montgomery. Some of the larger Alabama communities in our area included are Demopolis, Selma, Livingston, and Marion.

As we head into Sunday, low pressure will be developing along the Gulf Coast. It will be lifting north and will draw a warm front north as well. Depending on how far north the front comes, will determine how far north the severe weather threat will make it.

Several upper-level impulses will be moving across the region tomorrow and will produce multiple clusters of thunderstorms that will move east and north across the risk area. As the low moves north, it will be be enhancing the shear across the region. That means there will be a threat for tornadoes where storms do develop within the risk area. We will see these clusters of storms moving into Alabama Sunday and into Sunday night. Finally, a front will move across the risk area and will cause a line of storms to march east. With this line of storms, the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds. This line of storms will likely move into Alabama Monday morning.

Before the main line arrives, moisture will be streaming north into the state, and will allow for a very heavy rainfall event for much of Alabama. Along with the severe weather threat we are growing concerned with the threat of flooding. Much of Central Alabama will likely receive 2-3 inches of rain Sunday into Monday, with some model output suggesting possibly five inches.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather