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Rain Moved In – Storms Early Monday

| April 6, 2014 @ 8:07 am

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After a very nice Saturday with clouds increasing during the evening hours, rain moved into Central Alabama during the early morning hours with radar showing much of Central Alabama covered by a large rain shield. Rainfall has been mostly light along a line from Aliceville to Calera to Talladega. Further south, rainfall was heavier and thunderstorms were occurring across South Alabama. Montgomery had already picked up nearly an inch of rain this morning so far. The surface map showed a warm front situated along the Gulf Coast with overrunning rain across a large swath of the Southeast US. Flash flood watches were in effect for today and tonight in a large area encompassing extreme East Texas, much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, North Georgia and western sections of the Florida Panhandle.

A series of weak impulses were coming out of a deep trough over the Big Bend Country of Texas. The upper air pattern for the next couple of days will be complicated with the trough coming out of Texas in two chunks. The first strong wave will come out tonight and Monday and will generate a surface low in the vicinity of Southeast Texas that will deepen and move northeastward into southern Indiana by midday on Monday. The surface low along with strong low level wind will push warm and very moist air into the Central Gulf Coast area which will be the focus for potentially severe storms tonight and through sunrise on Monday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but the biggest threat will be in the form of damaging wind as well as heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the next 48 hours will fall on ground that is already pretty soaked which means we may well see flash flooding as well as extended river and stream flooding. Hence the flash flood watch in effect through early Monday afternoon. Precipitable water values for Central Alabama will rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range over the next 36 hours or so.

The key for the development of severe weather will be how far the warm sector can push northward. Dew points across Central Alabama this morning were in the 40s but along the immediate Gulf Coast they were in the middle 60s and some oil rigs just offshore were reporting values in the lower 70s. The combination of the surface low moving across northern Mississippi and the deep trough coming out of Texas should push this warm front northward into Central Alabama by Monday before noon. This has prompted the standard slight risk outlook for a large portion of Mississippi and Alabama as well as southern Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Low level wind at 925 millibars will be screaming out of the south, so it will not take much to bring that strong wind to the surface. There is sufficient instability for thunderstorms and the shear values are respectable, so tornadoes will be possible.

The upper trough will hang back as a secondary trough comes down the western side of the primary trough. This means that we won’t see a rapid clearing after the severe weather threat ends Monday. Instead, we’re going to stay cloudy with rain and showers likely as the second impulse comes across the area late Monday and Tuesday. We should finally see the clouds depart with drier air invading the area on Wednesday.

The air will be drier and much colder, too. Wednesday and Thursday morning I would not be surprised to see a frost threat once again with the potential for low temperatures to dip into the middle and upper 30s. I do not expect to see widespread temperatures at or below freezing, but frost will be a real possibility especially along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.

Fortunately the weather pattern settles down for us after the rain comes to an end by late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning. A ridge pattern will take over and keep the bulk of the traveling weather systems well to our north. Temperatures will moderate nicely with highs climbing back into the 70s for the end of the week and into the weekend. Morning lows in the 40s Wednesday should rise into the 50s for the end of the week.

But the next system is already showing up with another substantial trough approaching us on Sunday. We’ll probably stay dry for much of Sunday but another round of wet weather and potentially severe storms will come around the 14th and 15th with yet another deep trough coming across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. As that trough exits, we’ll see a ridge pump up across the eastern US bringing another round of fairly warm weather before another – yup, you guessed it – trough comes out of the Rockies around the 20th of April. Surely a fairly typical pattern since we are in the heart of the Spring season.

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Stay with the Blog for frequent updates on the developing weather situation. Since this could be another early morning round of strong to severe storms, be sure to have a way to get weather warnings while you are sleeping. The key to surviving severe weather is being prepared. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Be sure to catch Ashley Brand on ABC 3340 News at 5 and 10 pm this evening for the latest forecast on what is expected. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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