Possible Watch for Central Alabama

For the next few hours, we will see an increasing threat for large hail with thunderstorms that are developing across the area. We may see a severe thunderstorm watch issued for parts of Central Alabama. Heading through the overnight hours as the warm front lifts north, we may see the need for a tornado watch to be issued as well.

AREAS AFFECTED…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070102Z – 070300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

DISCUSSION…SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PREDOMINANT STORM
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THESE STORMS NORTHEASTWARD /NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT/…WITH A TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED TO ELEVATED
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AT OR
ABOVE 50 KTS/ AND INCREASING MUCAPE…THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION…ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT.

LATER THIS EVENING…INTO THE OVERNIGHT…THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS…THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
IS REALIZED THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WOULD CONSEQUENTLY
INCREASE…REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather