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Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast from Klotzbach/Gray

| April 10, 2014 @ 11:31 am

Dr. Bill Gray just finished speaking at the Tropical Meteorology Conference at South Padre Island, discussing the challenges of seasonal hurricane forecasting and the precursors that they use.

He turned it over to Dr. Phil Klotzbach to announce their 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. Here are the numbers, showing their forecast and the 30 year average (1981-2010).

KB photo

Named Storms: 9 (12.0)
Named Storm Days: 35 (60.1)

Hurricanes: 3 (6.5)
Hurricane Days: 12 (21.3)

Major Hurricanes: 1 (2.0)
Major Hurricane Days: 2 (3.9)

ACE*: 55 (92)
*ACE is Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measurement of the wind energy expended by tropical cyclones. It is a better parameter for looking at the overall intensity of a storm or season.

NOTES
…Klotzbach credits the pending El Nino for the below average forecast.
…The Atlantic is at its coolest since 1994 as well.

ANALOGS
Some analog seasons cited:
…1957 Hurricane Aubrey killed at least 416 people in SW Louisiana
…1963 Flora killed over 7,000 people in the Caribbean
…1965 Hurricane Betsy struck Bahamas, South Florida and Louisiana
…1997 Hurricane Danny flooded Alabama coast
…2002 Lili impacted Gulf Coast

I cite the example storms from the analogs as a reminder that it only takes one story to make it a bad hurricane season. So even though a below average season is forecast, that is academic if storm hits you.

Here is the full forecast.

Category: Headlines, Tropical

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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