Not Your Typical Spring

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The overall weather pattern continues to be an active one, but I sure would not classify this month as your typical April! The high temperature at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport yesterday barely made it out of the 50s with a 61 which is 14 degrees below our seasonal average for this date. The low for the day was only 1 degree above, so we saw very little diurnal change in the temperature. Plus we got a bit more rain bringing us to a total which is nearly 4 inches above the 30-year average rainfall for the month – with 11 days still left to go.

The surface low along with the upper level cold core low which brought us the soaking rain yesterday continues to bring rain to much of the eastern half of Alabama this morning. Both lows should continue to push eastward, so we should see a slow decrease in the light rain which is now falling over areas generally east of Interstate 65. Temperatures will be problematic with lower 70s possible from Birmingham westward while areas east of Birmingham could remain shrouded in clouds holding temperatures in the 60s.

Surface high pressure will fill in behind the surface and upper lows on Sunday bringing us a beautiful Easter Sunday. We’ll see a few late morning and afternoon clouds, but the sunshine will feel good with temperatures climbing into the middle 70s for most of us.

Monday will be a transitional day with clouds on the increase ahead of the next upper trough and surface cold front. The front should pass through Central Alabama on Tuesday bringing us the next good chance of showers. The afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s. The front should move through briskly as the upper trough moves quickly off the East Coast and we come under ridging aloft for Wednesday and Thursday. Yet another strong upper trough approaches Alabama on Thursday and Friday bringing another cold front into the picture. Timing of this system seems to befuddle the models as the GFS has continued to oscillate back and forth between Friday and Saturday on the frontal passage and attendant rain chances. The GFS is also more aggressive with the rain chances and the amounts than the European, so the forecast remains somewhat fluid at the moment. But whether it is Friday or Saturday, it looks like we’ll have a reasonably good chance at some showers before clearing out for next Sunday. Temperatures appear to be seasonal with highs in the upper 70s and morning lows mainly in the 50s.

Looking into voodoo country, I’d describe the model solutions as complex. Another shot at rain comes around the 29th and then the GFS goes off the scale with a huge Omega block ridge situated along the Mississippi River. The ridge is so strong it does seem exaggerated, so my confidence in the solution is pretty low. The Omega ridge pattern evolves by May 4th with a trough undercutting the huge ridge. Definitely a stay tuned on this one situation.

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I’ll be handling the weekend weather duties on ABC 3340 this weekend, so be sure to check in with our 10 pm newscast tonight for the latest forecast on your weather. The 10 pm newscast will actually come a little late due to special programming on ABC. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Easter morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather