Watch May Be Needed for Central Alabama

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND ERN AL THROUGH WCNTRL AND NWRN GA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER WCNTRL GA JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL EAST OF THE PRIMARY BAND
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN AL INTO GA IS ALREADY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL…AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
AND MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO
WATCH.

DISCUSSION…EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG ONE OF MANY CUMULUS BANDS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOUT 40 MILES SW OF THE ATLANTA AREA MOVING NWD. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE…AND WHILE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT AS
SIZEABLE AS FARTHER WEST…EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STORM HAS ALREADY TAKEN ON SOME
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPEARS TO HAVE SPLIT…WITH THE LEFT
MOVER LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH. IF THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE…A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS EWD.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather