No Time For Rest

The Friday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Now that today’s winter sneak attack is over, we have plenty to discuss over the next two weeks….

THE WEEKEND: A warming trend is the headline; we rise into the 40s tomorrow, and low 50s on Sunday. At this point the entire weekend looks dry, although clouds will probably begin to increase on Sunday as a major storm begins to get its act together west of here.

A TRIO OF STORM SYSTEMS: We will focus on the first threat, which will impact Alabama Monday night into Tuesday of next week. The 12Z GFS develops a surface low near Greenville, MS Monday night, moving it to near Athens, GA by midday Tuesday. A warm front will push north of here, up around the Alabama/Tennessee border, Monday morning. This means most of the rain on Monday will fall over Tennessee, and that rain could be heavy at times up there.

Monday will be a mild and breezy day here; maybe a few intervals of sunshine and only a small risk of a shower during the day. We should reach the mid 60s; some spots in West Alabama night be close to 70 Monday afternoon. What a difference a few days can make.

The main band of rain and storms will sweep through Alabama from around midnight Monday night through noon on Tuesday. SPC maintains a risk of severe weather over the southern half of Alabama where the instability values will be greater. Up this way, the instability will be very marginal for any severe storms, but we have to remember the last few events here have been with high shear, low CAPE setups. We will sure have to keep a close eye on it.

To the north, this will be a major snow producer for places like Southeast Missouri, Kentucky, the southern parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, and maybe even down into Arkansas and Tennessee. It all depends on the track of the surface low.

The rain and storms will diminish here Tuesday afternoon, and another shot of cold air rolls into the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. We should note as this storm moves northeast, just off the Atlantic coast, it has the potential to produce near blizzard conditions for all the I-95 cities up the eastern seaboard Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM NUMBER TWO: More questions than answers for the next impulse that should be around here Thursday of next week. The GFS shunts it down into the Gulf of Mexico. I think the most interesting solution is the DGEX (Downscaled GFS / Extended NAM); which paints a big strip of snow over the southern half of Alabama Thursday. Yep, I said southern half! See the Weather Xtreme video for the DGEX graphic. The JMA (Japanese) model has a bizzarre solution, which moves the system early in the week only slowly eastward, and brings wrap around snow down into North Alabama Thursday. Bottom line is that model madness rules, and we really have to get the system early in the week out of here before we can feel confident with any of these solutions. But, just understand this system is still on the table.

STORM NUMBER THREE: Our third system shows up around 2/18-19… we will deal with that one when it gets closer.

JOIN THE PARTY: See the latest weather related news on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Lots to see over there; I can’t help but notice a columnist with the Boston Globe has decided that people like me are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.

STORM ALERT 2007 will come to Jasper next Thursday night… go here for more information.

Thanks to all of you for being a part of the blog family and reading along with us… my next Weather Xtreme video will be up and on the server by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the updates here over the weekend for you. Have a blessed weekend.

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