Nice Weekend but Storms in our Future

The Saturday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Quite a difference a day makes. The clouds are mostly history today as we wake up to bright sunshine but chilly temperatures. Central Alabama is again in the grip of winter with morning temperatures in the 20s. Highs today should reach the lower 40s – a veritable heat wave compared to the weather yesterday when temperatures stayed in the 30s. And some milder weather is on the horizon, but you know what that can mean – thunderstorms.

High pressure settles in across the eastern third of the country Sunday as our temperatures moderate a bit. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the mid 50s – pretty typical of this time of year. But we’ll once again see a chilly start with morning lows in the lower and mid 20s.

Monday the changes begin. A warm front heads north bringing some good rainfall amounts to Tennessee and Kentucky with 3 to 4 inches possible up there. A surface low forms in West Texas Monday and the GFS and NAM are in pretty fair agreement on moving the low across northern Alabama Tuesday morning. The low center will be in the vicinity of Chattanooga by midday on Tuesday. If this timing is correct – and we might still see some minor adjustment to the timing – the main rain threat for Central Alabama will come late Monday night and Tuesday. The significant rain should end by early afternoon though some lingering light rain may occur into Tuesday night. Greater instability is likely to be limited to the Gulf Coast, but we’ll be watching the details for the threat of severe thunderstorms.

Temperatures cool down once again with another stronger reinforcing shot of cold air coming Thursday. Looks like more of the what we’ve been experiencing with lows in the 20s and highs in the lower 40s.

And then the GFS goes completely wild! On Saturday and Sunday, the GFS forecasts several disturbances in the northwest flow pattern with a big area of snow by Sunday from Northwest Florida to the western Great Lakes. Holy Whiteout, Batman!! Okay, don’t shoot the messenger. There is no disputing that this is what the GFS is forecasting, but do I believe it. It’s 8 days out so we’re into voodoo land and I really expect to see it change. But it sure will be interesting to follow the evolution of how this plays out. IF (and notice the use of capital letters – that’s translated a BIG IF) this pans out, we could see a nice snow event for North and Central Alabama. This type of scenario, however, does not usually result in heavy snow, but the magnitude of the GFS forecast would suggest measurable snow. I’m hoping, but I have strong reservations.

Further into voodoo land, the weather pattern remains very active with warmth returning and possible severe thunderstorms around the 23rd or so. I do believe the GFS has a relatively good handle on the active pattern but it tends to be off somewhat in the details. So S T A Y T U N E D ! ! ! It’s going to be an interesting ride.

Thanks for watching/reading. I’ll have another Weather Xtreme Video tomorrow morning by 9 am or so. Be sure to catch Ashley Brand tonight with the weather on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 pm. And don’t forget Storm Alert this coming Thursday in Jasper. Doors open at 5 pm and the show begins promptly at 7 pm. Have a great Saturday, and God bless.

-Brian-

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