Warmer Today

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What a beautiful afternoon we had yesterday across Central Alabama after some morning rain. Most of Central Alabama saw highs in the upper 70s while South Alabama edged into the lower 80s. The humidity was high yesterday afternoon, so some dense fog formed overnight. A dense fog advisory was in effect for the area generally along and east of the I-59 corridor. The fog will burn off or rise into a low cloud deck and break up by 9 to 10 am, and then we should see partly sunny skies for the afternoon. Due to the high humidity we may see a few isolated showers that may be a little more numerous across the southern sections of the state. Highs should once again climb into the lower and middle 80s.

The area comes under an upper ridge once again today which will stick around with us for the next couple of days. It’s going to be the classic battle of the strong trough in the Rockies butting heads with the strong ridge over the eastern US. Because of the low level moist air and afternoon heating, we could see isolated showers again Monday and Tuesday, but there appears to be just enough drying that most of us will remain dry with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s into the middle of the week.

The strong upper trough moves into the Mississippi River Valley at midweek bringing a front into our area. This should be the focus for our best rain chances for the upcoming week. At the moment, while we will probably see some thunderstorms, there does not appear to be a serious threat for severe weather in our area.

The eastward advancement of the trough pushes the ridge out into the Atlantic, and that’s where we see a major pattern change. The GFS was a little too enthusiastic with the pattern change yesterday developing a deep closed low over the southern Appalachians. Today’s model run has tempered that change but it is still enough of a change to take us from above average highs and lows to below average highs and lows as we get into Thursday and Friday and next weekend. And the GFS signals that this change will stick with us into the weekend and out into voodoo country. This dramatic pattern change will result in lowering morning lows into the 50s – perhaps even into the 40s – and afternoon highs into the 70s.

Our two major long term models are more similar today than they were yesterday, however, there are still some major differences. The European model is in line with the GFS until about Monday when the model solutions become quite different. It’s certainly not unusual to see this kind of model divergence, but the difference is so great there is little confidence in either solution being the correct one. I’m probably leaning a little more with the GFS since we’ve see a colder pattern for so much of 2014 so far, making the idea of the eastern US trough seem pretty reasonable.

The pattern shift is projected to stick around for Week 2, also known as voodoo country.

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I had a marvelous time at the Buck Creek Festival in Helena. We got off to a wet start during the morning, but the weather improved nicely as we went into the afternoon with some good sunshine and great music. It is so rewarding to work with a great bunch of people on a community project that benefits everyone. Mark your calendars for the next Buck Creek Festival, May 8 and 9, 2015. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather