Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Off and On Storms

| June 22, 2014 @ 7:03 am

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Moisture levels remain high across Central Alabama and are likely to remain that way for much of the next seven days. Isolated showers were already showing up on radar in Lamar, Marion, and Fayette counties this morning. Precipitable water values were the highest across the area from about Birmingham and Tuscaloosa toward Mobile, so I expect to see storm coverage a little higher over that area. So storms are likely just about every day this week. But everyone won’t get wet every day.

The upper ridge which kept storms in check for the last several days has been suppressed a good deal. This is allowing for our area to be influenced by small disturbances moving through the west-to-east flow. One of those disturbances will be coming across the Ohio River Valley on Monday and Tuesday, and it looks like it will be responsible for increasing storm coverage across our area for those two days. While daily heating will be the main driving force, this disturbance will open us to storms at about any hour of the day.

The overall upper air pattern becomes nearly zonal at mid week and then we settle into a couple of days of lowered pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will keep our weather unsettled with the focus primarily on daytime storms from noon to 8 pm or so. Daytime highs will dip back just a tad due to increased clouds and somewhat wider storm coverage with highs in the upper 80s.

By late next weekend, the GFS is building the upper ridge back into the Central US. This should bring a return of summer heat as we edge into voodoo country. But looking into the early days of July, the GFS continued to suggest a substantial trough for early July in the eastern US. But that is eventually replaced by a large upper ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies.

Tropics remain quiet. The GFS hints at some some increased storm activity in the western Gulf next Sunday.

FOR THE BEACH: Look for 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through Monday from Panama City to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and storms around. Showers and storms will become a little more numerous into next week. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with lower 90s inland.

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Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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