Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Showers Likely Once Again

| June 27, 2014 @ 6:50 am

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A weakness in the upper air pattern continued to influence our weather today. Showers were widespread and numerous on Thursday as one disturbance moved northeastward out of this weakness. Showers are not as prevalent this morning as that area of lowered pressure aloft becomes weaker and is finally showing signs of moving out as the upper ridge grows stronger. Look for highs in the middle 80s today due to the presence of showers and clouds, relatively cool values for our highs considering that the 30-year average highs should be around 90. The high yesterday in Birmingham as a very unseasonable 81 degrees. While there is not expected to be any organized severe weather, the weakness aloft and afternoon heating could combine to produce some isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind expected to be the greatest threat.

The weakness aloft migrates northeastward over the weekend and becomes less of a factor in our weather, so we see a return to more routine summer weather for the weekend with partly sunny days along with the risk of a scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be in the range of 87 to 91 – pretty typical for the end of June.

Models are showing a strengthening of the high pressure ridge aloft across the Deep South, for much of the week ahead and this should mean fewer showers and thunderstorms as well as hotter afternoons. Afternoon highs should rise into the low 90 and some spots could see highs in the mid 90s in a few spots. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should be widely spaced due to the warm air aloft and the sinking motion associated with the ridge aloft. Interesting to note the potential for a somewhat rare cold front to approach the area around the 2nd and 3rd of July. Always somewhat skeptical about fronts in the summer making it into the Southeast US, but it is possible. The approach of any front could raise the risk of unsettled weather for the Fourth of July.

ON THE GULF BEACHES: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City to Gulf Shores through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time. Highs along the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 84 degrees.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend. Some tropical development possible in the eastern Pacific.

Voodoo country has an interesting surprise in the form of a deep trough along the eastern US, but then the upper ridge grows very strong into the middle of July. This strong ridge could spell some significant heat for the eastern US.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted between 7 and 8 am on Saturday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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