Heat Goes Up

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In a relatively complex pattern for the start of July, a frontal system will approach from the northwest at mid-week while Tropical Depression One, soon to be Arthur, slowly churns off the east coast of Florida. The front would hint at increased shower chances, but the presence of the tropical disturbance and the sinking motion associated with it will counter the actions of the front. The result is a decrease in precipitation chances. Temperatures go up temporarily with Wednesday likely to be one of the warmest days so far in 2014.

But the presence of the circulation off the Southeast US coast will help to bring in stronger northerly flow aloft and along with it some much drier air to go along with the overall sinking motion to the northwest of the tropical system. This means that most of us will see dry weather for the next several days.

The heat goes up with the temporary building of a ridge between the approaching front and the tropical system off the East Coast of Florida. The combination of surface high pressure to our northwest and the tropical system to the southeast will increase the northerly flow aloft and drive some drier air into the area. The net effect will be to drive temperatures back down for Thursday and Friday. The drier and slightly cooler air should provide us with a fabulous Fourth.

As we watch the future Arthur scoot along the Southeast US coast, the trough to the northwest will move to the Mid Atlantic Coast. This should take Arthur out into the North Atlantic while an elongated west to east ridge builds across the southern US. Moisture levels will gradually work their way back up bringing isolated showers back into the forecast for the latter part of the Fourth of July weekend and into the first of next week.

For Beach Goers, the week ahead along the Gulf Coast looks great. You can expect 8 to 10 hours of sunshine and only small chances for an isolated thunderstorm. There will be a slightly better chance Thursday, as the front approaches. Highs will be in the lower 90s right along the shore, with middle and upper 90s further inland. Lows will be in the upper 70s. Expect to see a refreshing sea breeze each afternoon as Gulf water temperatures are in the middle 80s.

Unfortunately the long range outlook looks pretty hot. The dreaded 594 heat bubble will raise it’s ugly head promising some pretty good heat for the middle of July for much of the eastern two thirds of the country.

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Your next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted on Wednesday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather