Another Hot One But Change Ahead

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As the upper ridge loosens its grip we will see another hot and mostly dry weather day for Central Alabama on this Sunday in the middle of July; highs will be in the 92 to 95 degree range with hazy sunshine. A few afternoon showers or storms will kick off in afternoon heat, but they should be fairly widely spaced much like we saw yesterday. A weak convergence boundary could set up along or just northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor where we may see the greatest threat for those isolated showers.

The ridge slides west into early next week, and models continue to develop a strong long wave upper trough for mid-summer over the eastern half of the nation. Afternoon showers and storms are possible Monday, with showers and storms to become likely Monday night and Tuesday in advance of a cold front pushing into the Southeast from the north and northwest. There is fairly good agreement between the GFS and the European in bringing the frontal boundary through Central Alabama, so this adds to the overall confidence in seeing a mid-July cold front make it into the region.

Much like July 4th and 5th, I expect to see some dry, continental air invade Alabama Wednesday and Thursday with lower humidity and cooler nights. Lower humidity is always refreshing in July. But unlike the model runs yesterday, moisture levels don’t stay down long and they begin rebounding on Thursday and into Friday putting showers back in the forecast. A short wave trough moving across the Central US Friday will aide in moisture return from the southwest and perhaps bring us some good rain chances for next weekend.

For those headed to the beach, look for 7 to 9 hours of sunshine along the Alabama Gulf Coast through Monday with widely scattered storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the lower and mid 80s along the Alabama and North Florida shoreline. Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely along the coast by Tuesday.

Voodoo country looks really hot with a 600 height contour over the western half of the US with a deep trough situated over the East Coast. This pattern would bring a northwesterly flow to the Middle Mississippi River Valley, so will always have to be cautious about the development of long-lived MCCs – Mesoscale Convection Complexes – coming out of the Central US.

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Blog. James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video update on Monday morning. Watch the heat today and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather