Warm, Moist Air Stays In Place

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RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and storms continue, mostly over the eastern half of Alabama at mid-afternoon. There is very little movement… just a drift toward the west/northwest, so some places have seen heavy rain. Temperatures are mostly in the 80s… this will be the seventh consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees in Birmingham. Quite remarkable for mid-July.

An upper low is over East Alabama, and is expected to drift southwest, toward Mobile tomorrow. This should mean a rather unsettled day tomorrow for the state, with a mostly cloudy sky and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Once again the high should be in the 80s due to clouds and showers.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper low will weaken and dissipate, so Wednesday looks like a typical summer day with a partly sunny and the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Then, an approaching front should bring an increase in the number of showers and storms to the northern half of the state Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The latest GFS (12Z run) brings drier air down into North Alabama Friday, suggesting the highest risk of showers and storms will come over South Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For now Saturday looks relatively rain-free with only isolated showers, but a disturbance in the northwest flow aloft across the Deep South could bring an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night or Sunday. Highs this weekend should be close to 90 degrees.

LONG RANGE: Global models are showing another deep, long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. in 9-12 days; this could bring another “cool” and refreshing airmass down into the southern states during a time when summer heat is usually peaking. Let’s hope this verifies.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 4-6 hours of sun tomorrow along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then, we expect increasing amounts of sun and fewer showers Thursday and Friday. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast, and the NWS Mobile has been warning of dangerous rip tides in coastal waters. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION: The disturbance in the Atlantic about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Windward Islands has become the second tropical depression of the season in the Atlantic basin. The good news is that this is not expected to reach tropical storm strength, and should dissipate before reaching the islands due to harsh environmental conditions.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

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Tags: scattered showers

Category: Alabama's Weather