Staying Somewhat Unsettled

***Please note that there will not be a Weather Xtreme Video this morning.*** I plan to have one posted by 8 am on Saturday morning. Here’s a discussion of what is expected in our weather for the next week or so.

We saw a few radar echoes yesterday afternoon passing across Central Alabama, but thanks to a dry layer around 800 to 700 millibars, only a few sprinkles at best reached the ground. But the atmosphere continues to become wetter, so we will see more showers and storms today and through the weekend. The upper level flow remains amplified over the east with a trough persisting over the eastern U.S. This trough retrograded some yesterday, but will back east today and over the weekend. This feature will be enhancing the uplift and tapping into higher moisture levels which will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop at almost anytime throughout the day keeping the weekend somewhat unsettled.

As the trough move back east over the weekend, it will increase our rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks to be the wetter day for now, but it should not be an all day rain. Sunday will see good rain chances as well, and both days will see highs in the mid-80s with extensive cloud cover preventing much warming during the day.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the first part of the week, but looking at the medium range models, the pattern flattens out some in the east and that means our flow will become a bit more zonal. We are likely to see rain chances decrease and become more diurnally driven with afternoon heating. Temperatures will also climb into the 89 to 92 range. After starting the month with below seasonal temperatures, it looks as though that temps will climb to seasonal norms. Rain chances will be more typical for early August with only a few isolated showers and storms possible.

A mix of sun and clouds for beach goers. Fairly seasonal weather is expected as scattered afternoon storms will be possible. The best chance of rain looks to be Sunday into Monday, but after that, rain chances begin to lower again. Highs are in the upper 80s, and the water temperatures are averaging lower 80s from Panama City west to Dauphin Island.

TROPICAL SITUATION: Bertha came into being yesterday afternoon and is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles today and across Puerto Rico late Saturday. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once Bertha reaches the Bahamas, she will be steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high and the upper level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern should force Bertha to turn northward with recurvature northeastward over the Atlantic keeping it away from the Southeast US Coast.

Long range model projections remain trending toward ridging across the southern tier of the US. However, the overall troughiness we’ve seen during July across the eastern US persists, so there is currently no signs of any significant heat for the eastern US.

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Sorry for lack of a Weather Xtreme Video this morning, but dealing with some minor cold issues with coughs and you know what that can do to sleep in your household. Enjoy the continued cooler than typical weather while it lasts. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather