Shower Chances Dip Somewhat

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The upper trough axis remains in our area and helped to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant of Alabama yesterday afternoon. Enough so that I ended up with nearly 1.5 inches of rain in slow moving storms during the afternoon. Those storms produced an interesting temperature trace for the afternoon.

Looking a bit drier for Central Alabama today with that pesky upper trough axis moving a bit east and providing a slight northwesterly flow. This positioning puts us in the area for less shower development with some slightly drier air aloft but we’re still looking at isolated showers. Showers will be a little more numerous across South Alabama where the deeper moisture resides. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 80s with periods of clouds and sunshine here and there.

For beach goers, look for 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast where showers will be occurring off and on today and Monday. Air temperatures will continue to be in the 86 to 88 degree range as water temperature values remain in the lower and middle 80s. Looks like a return to more widely scattered showers into the middle of next week.

In the tropics, Bertha remained somewhat disorganized with a closed surface center somewhat hard to locate as it was approaching the Southeast Bahamas. The storm is likely to remain disorganized for the next 24 hours as it moves away from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, conditions will improve with water temperatures going up which is likely to allow the system to gain strength and perhaps become a hurricane as it recurves around the subtropical high in the Atlantic and the trough over the eastern US. The recurvature should keep it in the Atlantic away from the US coastline.

The upper trough maintains a presence in our area into the first of next week, so showers remain a possibility but I think we get back to something more closely matching a summertime pattern with daily showers driven mainly by afternoon heat especially across the northern half of Alabama with some slightly drier air in place. With the weak trough in place, can’t completely rule out an isolated shower at almost any time. But as the trough does weaken some and the upper flow becomes more northwesterly, we should experience some upper level drying that will suppress showers somewhat.

As I mentioned yesterday, that northwesterly flow also brings the potential for large thunderstorm clusters to form over the Central Plains and move into the Southeast US. Certainly not much skill at forecasting a specific threat for a specific spot, but we need to be aware of this potential in the forecast which might require last minute adjustments. The northwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday may actually bring a couple of days for almost no showers though it is hard to take all mention of showers out of the forecast.

Out in Voodoo country – week two of the forecast – the pattern remains fixed on the trend of keeping a fairly substantial trough over the eastern US while the westerlies remain well north in Canada. But by the end of the period the ridge becomes stronger across the southern tier of the US keeping isolated showers a daily occurrence.

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I will be filling in on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm for Meaghan Thomas so you can catch the latest weather forecast then. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather