Hot But Relief in Sight

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It’s going to be another hot day for much of Central Alabama as highs reach the 95 to 100 range with heat indices of 105 degrees. The NWS has a heat advisory for much of Central Alabama west of I-65 since it appears likely that East Central Alabama will only nudge the heat advisory criteria. Just be aware that it is hot and adjust your activities to account for the heat – no sense in overdoing it. Stay hydrated, too.

While the upper ridge remains the big player in the upper air pattern, we’re also watching the thunderstorm complex that was located just north of Nashville. HRRR model data suggests it or at least a boundary from it will reach into the Tennessee River Valley this afternoon which could be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.

The pattern is slow to change over the next several days, but there does appear to be some heat relief in sight thanks in part to the developing tropical system over the Bahamas. The latest models suggest bringing it very close to the East Coast of Florida and then recurving along the Southeast US coast. This together with a slight westward movement of the upper ridge will actually bring a “wedge” pattern – cold air damming – though I might call is cool air damming in this season. The result is some drying and cooling of the air for us bringing temperatures well down into the 90s. The sinking motion on the west side of the tropical system, whatever it is, will help to keep us dry.

The ridge is gradually replaced by the end of the week with a strong trough coming across the Central Mississippi River Valley which should also help to guide the tropical system out into the Atlantic.

The tropical system just north of Hispaniola is likely to develop into a depression or storm in the next 24 to 36 hours as it enters an area of conditions more conducive for development plus getting some distance from the terrain of Hispaniola. The current track is across the Bahamas and along the Florida East Coast, but the question will be how close it comes to Florida. The latest model clustering generally keeps it away from Florida, however, the GFS was bringing it right along the eastern peninsula. With the relatively weak flow in that area, we’ll have to watch it carefully for small changes. This system is likely to become Cristobal.

For beach goers, the best chances for rain along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida appear to come on Monday. Otherwise, a fairly typical 20 percent chance of showers and storms each day of the weekend. Highs will be in the lower 90s this weekend and near 90F the rest of the week. Lows will be in the 70s.

Voodoo country or Week 2 appears to be featuring an elongated ridge across the southern tier of the US. The good news for us is that that pattern does not forecast any excessive heat. For those wanting rain, the bad news is that that pattern only means scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms.

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I hope you have a great weekend. Be mindful that it will be hot, so take it easy on outside activities. I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather