Chilly Start But a Warm Afternoon

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It was a chilly start to this Sunday morning with some light frost reported across the northeast quadrant of Alabama. Skywatcher Vic Bell at Black Creek reported a low of 32 degrees, his earliest freeze ever by about four days. With clear skies we should see the morning chill give way to a warm afternoon as highs climb into the middle 70s.

The surface high will slide east and northeast of us Monday allowing a quick return of warm moist air to our west and northwest. This quick return along with a strong short wave moving through the trough situated over the eastern US will set the stage for possible severe weather in a fairly narrow band just to our north and northwest. SPC has outlined a slight risk area that encompasses places like Nashville, Memphis, Tupelo, Muscle Shoals, and Huntsville. CAPE and helicity values support the idea of supercell development. Cold air aloft will support a large hail threat while the shear also supports a tornado threat.

The fast moving short wave will zip by Tuesday ending the threat of rain and storms. But the pattern remains challenging as we come under a brief period of ridging for Wednesday and Thursday before we have to deal with the remnants of Simon. The GFS suggests a weak disturbance, remnants of Simon, will move across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday and Saturday bringing clouds and showers to Central Alabama. The moisture will stick around into Sunday before another short wave coming out of the Central Plains will bring an end to rain chances early into voodoo country.

For beach goers, the weather looks dry for much of the week ahead with highs in the lower 80s and lows around 70. Gulf water temperature continues to be in the lower to middle 70s along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coastline.

Looking into week 2, the GFS is sowing another substantial trough around the 14th/15th time frame with the potential for some tropical mischief. This is voodoo country after all. The trough over the eastern US remains the look out to the 20th.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Enjoy another wonderful Fall day as our temperatures warm up. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather