Warms Days; A Few Scattered Storms
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HIGHS STAY IN THE 80s: An upper ridge building into Alabama from the southwest will keep us unseasonably warm through the weekend, with temperatures almost ten degrees above average for mid-October. And, like summer, the air will be moist and somewhat unstable, meaning we will have some risk of scattered showers and storms on daily basis. The best chance of them will be along and north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), and during the afternoon and evening hours.
ON THE MAPS: A surface boundary will be lifting northward today as a warm front, and then tomorrow a cold front will sag southward into Tennessee. This should mean the most numerous showers and storms over the next few days will be close to the Tennessee border, with the activity becoming more widely spaced as you work your way to the south. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, the chance of any one spot seeing a shower is about one in three each day through Sunday, with higher odds to the north.
NEXT WEEK: A long wave upper trough is forecast to develop west of our state, and as that approaches showers and storms become more widespread statewide early in the week; the 00Z GFS hints the main rain event will come late Monday, Monday night, into Tuesday morning, with potential for over one inch statewide. Also, we could very well be dealing with strong to severe thunderstorms since this system will have excellent upper support, and a surface low just northwest of Alabama.
A nice surge of cooler, drier air follows the rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; a few isolated showers or storms are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, tomorrow night, widely scattered showers and storms are possible from Birmingham north during the games, with dry conditions south of Birmingham. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.
On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.
Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms are likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.
UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm.
NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.
TROPICS: NHC is monitoring a disturbance north of the Leeward Islands; it has some potential for slow development this weekend and early next week, but it will most likely recurve into the Atlantic if anything happens to form there.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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Busy day ahead… I will be at the annual community awareness day in downtown Birmingham this morning, then I will be live from the Pig Iron BBQ event at the Hoover Met on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, and 6:00… then I will be at the “Hoops on the Haasephalt” event at UAB this evening that is the basketball season kickoff event. Not sure I will have time to post an afternoon video, but I will have forecast notes here by 4:00. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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