Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Showers and Warmth Continue

| October 12, 2014 @ 7:03 am

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As we gear up for the approach of a very dynamic system late Monday and early Tuesday, we will be staying warm and unsettled with scattered showers a possibility through Monday. Highs today should be in the lower and middle 80s with a mix of sun and clouds and those scattered showers. That frontal boundary will gradually wash out over the next 24 hours as a deep trough takes shape just to our west.

A strong impulse coming out of the Rockies will dig a deep trough into the Central US generating a surface low over Oklahoma that will move to the northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The strong southerly flow will bring good low level moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That along with strong low level jet will set the stage for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms over a large portion of the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Monday and into early Tuesday. For Central Alabama, it looks like the main threat for strong to severe storms will come in the 9 pm Monday to noon Tuesday time frame. Shear valleys are sufficient to support rotating storms so there is a risk of tornadoes along with damaging thunderstorm wind.

This dynamic system should move through Central Alabama by early Tuesday afternoon with the severe weather risk shifting into Georgia for Day 3 or Tuesday. Some clearing may occur but it looks like there could be some wrap around cloudiness into Wednesday before we see a return to full sunshine.

This system won’t be tapping into any really cold air but we should cool down nicely with lows on Wednesday and Thursday morning dipping into the 40s with afternoon highs in the lower 70s. That will certainly feel nice.

The weather pattern remains fairly active for October with another trough forecast to come across the Great Lakes on Friday. But this system appears to stay well north of us thanks in part to weak ridging following the strong system Monday and Tuesday. This next system will probably drag a front into the eastern US late in the week, however, it looks like we don’t see any significant moisture return, so we should stay dry for the latter part of the week and into next weekend. That will be great for Friday night high school football and college games on Saturday.

In the tropics, Fay transitioned from a sub-tropical storm into a tropical storm yesterday and was brushing by Bermuda this morning. Fay will continue into the North Atlantic on an east to northeast track. Another area of disturbed weather just to the east of the Lesser Antilles shows some potential for development, but this system appears likely to recurve into the Atlantic away from the southern US just as Fay has done.

Beach visitors will have to contend with showers today and Monday along with some risk for severe storms on Monday into the first half of Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 80s. After Tuesday, the weather turns dry along the coast with highs around 80 and lows in the lower 60s. Water temperatures were running in the middle 70s along the Alabama coastal area.

Looking into voodoo country, October appears to remain more active than we usually expect for this, the driest month of the year for Central Alabama. The GFS continued to show another deep trough over the eastern third of the country around the 21st/22nd time frame which would spell another round of rain and storms. The good news is that there does not appear to be any sign of any extreme temperature changes for Week 2.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Monday morning. Check back here for updates on this evolving weather system. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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