Here Comes the Rain

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After a gorgeous November Saturday that was a little chilly but still warmer than Friday, clouds moved in overnight and the rain was heading our way. A surface low will track across North Alabama tonight from a position near Lake Charles this morning. The surface low is in response to a strong trough digging into the Central US that will bring another shot of very cold air to Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface low will move quickly northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon bringing an end to the rain as the cold air arrives here. And this air will be cold! I do not expect us to get out of the 40s on Monday and by Tuesday morning we could see temperature readings in the teens. The record low for Birmingham for Tuesday morning is 20, so a new record low is possible.

The severe weather threat should be confined to the immediate coastal area of the Central Gulf coast today and across North Florida and southern Georgia on Monday. A band of snow with the surface low will affect the Central US in a line from about Amarillo, TX, to Erie, PA, with snow amounts ranging from 1 to 4 inches in that fairly narrow band where winter weather advisories are in effect.

With a deep trough in place Monday and Tuesday, cold air will settle into Central Alabama with readings Monday only in the 40s. By Tuesday morning, we could see record low temperatures in Central Alabama with values in the teens. Wednesday morning could by nearly as cold as the surface high settles into the Southeast US.

Temperatures should moderate some by the end of the week with highs by Thursday and Friday into the 50s. But the fast moving flow is forecast to bring another short wave across the southern tier of the US which could bring rain back into the picture as early as Friday. Timing of this system has changed from the model runs yesterday, so confidence in the onset of our next wet event is not very high at the moment. But with another strong upper trough forecast to affect us by Sunday, we could see another cold rain event.

Just as we saw yesterday, the GFS continues to present a cold week 2. Another very deep trough around November 25th could spell another winter weather event for the middle Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, but we’re dealing with voodoo country, so there is no skill in trying to forecast a specific event – just something to keep an eye on.

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James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. I’m looking forward to my role as honorary ringmaster at the Shriner Circus going on at the Pelham Civic Center today. Stay dry and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather