Warming Trend Begins This Afternoon

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FRIGID MORNING: Here are some of the temperatures across the great state of Alabama as the sun is coming up this morning…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 12
Coldwater 14
Fort Payne 14
Valley Head 14
White Plains 15
Gadsden 16
Cullman 16
Concord 17
Anniston 18
Montgomery 18
Troy 18
Auburn 19
Bessemer 19
Coker 19
Montevallo 19
Birmingham Airport 21 (record low for November 19 at 18 set in 1903)
Tuscaloosa 22

WARMER DAYS AHEAD: We project a high today around 50 degrees with a good supply of sunshine; the weather stays dry for the rest of the week with mid to upper 50s tomorrow, and low 60s by Friday afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds will increase during the day Saturday, but the weather stays dry. The GFS is printing a high of 67 for Birmingham Saturday, which is actually a few degrees above average for mid to late November. Then, a dynamic system will bring rain and storms to the state after midnight Saturday night and into the day Sunday.

It will be case of very good dynamics, and very marginal thermodynamics, and at this time it seems like the highest risk of severe weather will be over the southern quarter of Alabama. There is very little surface based instability over the northern half of the state early Sunday as the storms are coming through, which hopefully will mitigate severe weather problems for our end of the state. But, to the south, I would not be surprised to see severe storms near the coast, and perhaps up to 100 miles inland.

With a 60 knot low level jet, and low level bulk shear values to 40 knots, a tornado threat is very possible for far South Alabama as well. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and details… we will watch model trends closely as the weekend gets closer. The main window for showers and storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. through 2:00 p.m. Sunday; rain amounts of around one inch are likely, with heavier totals over South Alabama.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through Monday, which could bring a shower or two, but moisture will be pretty limited, and it won’t be a big rain event. Then, the rest of the week looks cool and dry, with highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 30s. The cool, dry weather should extend into the following weekend, meaning weather for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa for now looks fine. But, of course, this is in “voodoo land” and things could change.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama Friday night; mostly clear with temperatures falling from 55 at kickoff, into the upper 40s by the final whistle.

Saturday is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 67 degrees, falling to near 60 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 60 degrees at kickoff, and mid to upper 50s by the fourth quarter. No rain expected.

And, a big game for the UAB Blazers; they host Marshall at Legion Field (11:00a CT kickoff). Clouds will increase during the game, but no rain. Temperatures will rise from near 64 at kickoff, to near 67 by the fourth quarter.

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I will be speaking today at the Gadsden Kiwanis Club… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather