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Wet/Stormy Pre-Christmas Weather

| December 22, 2014 @ 6:44 am

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

With an active pattern developing, I encourage you to watch the video since it has the supporting maps and graphics; won’t take long and you will get a really good briefing.

SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY: A messy weather pattern is developing for Alabama and the Deep South over the next 48 hours as a deep, long wave upper trough approaches from the west. Moisture levels will rise across the state today, and we expect developing showers and storms by mid to late morning. Thunderstorms today over North and Central Alabama will be elevated, so severe weather should not be a problem around here today. SPC has defined a “marginal” severe weather risk today and tonight for parts of South Alabama, south of a line from Grove Hill to Greenville to Geneva.

If we have severe weather issues this afternoon and tonight, it should be close to the coast as a warm front moves inland and unstable air arrives. In fact, there is a low end tornado threat late this afternoon and tonight close to the Gulf Coast. Up this way, stronger storms tonight could produce gusty winds and some small hail, but again, we just don’t expect major severe weather issues over the next 24 hours.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT: Dynamic support improves, unstable air slowly moves northward across Alabama, and we will have the dual threat of heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has pulled the severe weather risk northward; the standard “slight risk” is now up along and south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Roanoke. A “marginal risk” extends northward to the Tennessee River…

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Let’s try and answer the questions on the event…

TIMING: While rain and storms are likely much of the day tomorrow, for North/Central Alabama (including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden), the core severe weather threat will come from 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. Some possibility a few severe storms could form earlier in the day over West and South Alabama.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Quite frankly, it seems like the severe weather parameters are a little out of phase over the northern half of the state; the higher low level shear values and the low level jet axis are a little east of here tomorrow night, and as usual with events in late December, instability values are marginal. I would not call this a “major” severe weather threat, but when it comes to thunderstorms, you have to expect the unexpected.

PLACEMENT: No doubt the higher severe weather risk will come over the southern half of Alabama, but a few isolated severe storms could form as far north as the Tennessee River.

THREATS: Stronger storms late tomorrow and tomorrow night could produce hail and strong, gusty winds. An isolated tornado or two is certainly possible. And, rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely, and some flash flooding problems are very possible. I would not be surprised if a flash flood watch is issued for much of Alabama; for now only the southeast corner of the state is under one (around Dothan).

CALL TO ACTION: As always, the key point is to be able to receive severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. Be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is programmed properly, and NEVER rely on an outdoor warning siren. Good smart phone apps provide a great way of getting warnings; apps like WeatherRadio by WDT and MyWarn work very well. Also, if you have guests at your home for Christmas, you might share the location of your “safe place” with them. And, in that “safe place” be sure you have helmets.

Keep a close eye on the blog (or the James Spann 24/7 weather app if you use that to access these posts) for updates.

CHRISTMAS EVE: Rain and storms will end pretty early in the day; we will be close to 60 degrees at daybreak, but temperatures will fall through the 50s during the day with lingering clouds and a gusty west to northwest breeze.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Could not be better. A good supply of sunshine; the morning low will be in the 30s, and the afternoon high will be in the 50s. Right at seasonal averages for late December.

The weather stays dry on Friday with a high close to 60. Then, a cold front will pass through on Saturday; this will have the potential to bring a few showers, but for now it doesn’t look like a big rain event. Then, Sunday looks cool and dry with a high in the 50s.

LONG RANGE: Pretty good evidence that we turn sharply colder toward the end of December and the first of January, but I am not sure the cold air stays around for long as the AO/NAO negative spike is brief. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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