Tornado Watch Likely Coming Soon to the West

The SPC is currently working on issuing a tornado watch for areas to the west of Alabama. This initial watch is not expected to include any portion of Alabama. However, as the storm system shifts east, the watches will be shifted east as well. Stay weather aware heading into the afternoon and evening as strong and severe storms will be possible, with the threat of damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding.

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL/SRN MS…ERN LA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…PRE-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION…COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
10 W UOX TO 20 W JAN TO 30 W HEZ TO 30 NW LFT AS OF 16Z. FROM THE
JAN AREA SWD TO THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY…A
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 65-70 DEG F SURFACE DEW
POINTS WAS PREVALENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT WARM
SECTOR TCU/CBS HAVE INITIATED OFFSHORE S OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY. RECENT
HRRR RUNS AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN
SIMULATING STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
APPEARS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS WARM
CONVEYOR ACTIVITY.

DESPITE MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/JAN
RAOBS…SLIGHT SURFACE HEATING IN THE 72-74 DEG F RANGE ACROSS ERN
LA IS ALREADY ADEQUATE FOR MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG. VEERED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS /STRONGER WITH NRN EXTENT/ SUGGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY LARGE…BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN LA
INTO SRN MS BETWEEN ABOUT 19-22Z.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather