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Update On Winter Weather Potential Monday/Tuesday

| February 13, 2015 @ 12:27 pm

New model guidance is in…

Not much too change in our thinking for Monday morning….

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TIMING: Looks like the precipitation now could arrive as early as midnight Sunday night. The primary threat of icy travel problems will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Isolated icy patches could linger into Monday afternoon across the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but temperatures should generlly rise above freezing in most places by late morning.

PRECIPITATION TYPE: It looks like all snow along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. To the south, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will have a “wintry mix” of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Some sleet/freezing rain is possible as far south as Livingston, Clanton, and Roanoke.

ACCUMULATION: The Tennessee Valley could see 1-2 inches of snow Monday morning; amounts to 1 inch are possible along the I-20/59 corridor, but keep in mind much of the precipitation there could be in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulation to 1/10 of an inch is possible through Central Alabama.

IMPACT: With temperatures in the 20s, bridges and overpasses will likely become icy across North/Central Alabama as the precipitation falls. Ice is possible on secondary road surfaces (not just bridges) as well. Travel will be difficult. We do not expect enough freezing rain to create power outages at this time.

UNCERTAINTY: As always, this could change, but confidence is growing with good model consistency.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Forecast confidence is much lower for this period. As I expected, the 12Z GFS has pulled the precipitation shield to the north, hinting at some rain Monday night into early Tuesday, with potential for a change to snow during the day Tuesday on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.

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No point in getting specific about Tuesday with such low forecast confidence, but accumulating snow will be possible somewhere across North or Central Alabama.

Will have a more detailed discussion and a new Weather Xtreme video by 4:00… and please read the post below this one concerning things you need to understand about winter weather forecasts!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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